Asian Security & Democracy Project

People’s Liberation Army Leverage of Foreign Military Technology
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 22nd, 2006
Over the past 15 years the PLA’s ability to purchase, co-produce and absorb foreign weapons and foreign military technology has had played a decisive role in achieving the capabilities it now demonstrates, and will demonstrate in the near future.This report updates a 2004 review of foreign military systems and technologies acquired by the PLA and assessed their impact on then developing PLA capabilities.

Pollution: A Real Political Issue
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on May 9th, 2007
Reports are that at an internal party meeting China’s inscrutable premier Wen Jiabao, recently delivered a scathing indictment of his government’s failure to control the pollution that is rapidly turning much of his country to waste land.

The Chinese Stock Market
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on May 13th, 2007
How will the Chinese stock market rally end? The answer is important not only for investors there, but for ordinary Chinese farmers who have never laid eyes on a stock certificate.  Chinese stocks are grossly overvalued. But a buying frenzy is driving them higher—a frenzy that reflects the fundamental irrationality of a system that now lets people earn money but closes off almost all avenues for investing it—except a swelling stock market bubble.  We know the bubble will burst. When it does, the fundamental bargain between the repressive Chinese government and its people—you let us rule and we will make you rich—may burst too. With unfathomable, but no doubt very serious, consequences.

Mao Portrait Damaged
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on May 14th, 2007
The immense portrait of Mao Zedong that dominates the north side of Tiananmen Square in Beijing was damaged on Saturday morning when a Chinese citizen hit it with an improvised firebomb. The weekend crowds were promptly shooed away, the square and roads leading in were closed and the portrait replaced by a duplicate overnight. During the rest of the weekend only limited access was permitted to ordinary Chinese and the atmosphere was described as "tense."

Hong Kong Storm Over “Tiananmen Denial”
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on May 16th, 2007
A very important fact is revealed by the firestorm of indignation that has swept Hong Kong since pro-Beijing lawmaker Ma Lik 馬 力 denied on Tuesday that a "massacre" had taken place at Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989.  That fact is that cover-ups rarely work and that facts must usually be faced, sooner or later.

Arthur Waldron's Dissent to CFR China Report
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on June 21st, 2007
Council on Foreign Relations member and Vice President of IASC, Arthur Waldron, was a member of the Council Task Force the report of which, "An Affirmative Agenda, A Positive Course" was recently released. Task force members had the option of signing the report without reservation, signing with reservation, or--if they found themselves in complete disagreement--not being listed as taking such a position, but rather not being listed at all, even though they had participated. Professor Waldron chose to sign with substantial reservations. Owing to Council on Foreign Relations rules, however, he did not have the opportunity to present these in detail in the report as published, though he--and others having reservations--were permitted to publish brief dissents or additions, as he did.

New Chinese Missiles Target the Greater Asian Region
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 24th, 2007
Imagery made available on Chinese web pages on July 13 and July 15 appears to confirm that China has developed new short range and medium to intermediate range ballistic missiles for use in the Asia Pacific region. First viewed in an unclear image in November 2006, the new medium to intermediate range missile may be a version of the DF-21 (NATO code: CSS-5) or it may be the long-awaited DF-25. The other missile appears to be a new version of the DF-15 (CSS-6) with a terminally guided warhead. The significance of these revelations is that China is upgrading its regionally-targeted missile forces, which will soon pose additional threats to, among others, India, Russia, Japan, South Korea and to U.S. forces in the East Asian region.

'Peace Mission'
Asian Wall Street Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on August 15th, 2007
The world will understandably have some questions this Thursday when Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian leader Vladimir Putin meet at Garrison Chebarkul in Russia to review troops from both their countries, as well as four states of former Soviet Central Asia. The event will mark the end of maneuvers called Peace Mission 2007, and it raises some important questions. Does this exercise signal a stepping up of already substantial military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing? And if it does, cooperation against what or whom?

Chengdu J-10 Fighters for Iran
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 28th, 2007
According to an October 23 report by Russia’s Kommersant, “Iran has signed a contract with China for the delivery of two squadrons of J-10 fighter planes…Representatives of the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company said China would deliver the total (24 jets) in 2008-2010. Engines for the jets will be supplied by Russia…estimating one fighter at $40 million, put the contract’s value at $1 billion.”  While further confirmation or denials can be expected from other Russian, Iranian and Chinese sources, such a sale remains possible given Iran’s requirements and its relationship with China.  But at a time when U.S. and Israeli officials are increasingly considering the heavy burden of having to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons related facilities, China’s sale of the J-10 to Iran may signal the beginning of a deeper Chinese effort to protect Iran’s nuclear aspirations, much as it has ensured North Korea’s nuclear weapons development.

Japanese Military Technology Advances
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on December 6th, 2007
While Japan has remained largely dependent on imported American technology for major weapon systems since the 1950s, through the work of the Japanese Defense Ministry’s Technical Research and Development Institute (TRDI) has also succeeded in building a modern domestic defense industry dedicated to meeting Japan’s specific requirements.  Recent TRDI successes include the new Kawasaki-built P-X four-turbofan engine maritime patrol aircraft with a TRDI designed high-bypass turbofan engine, and the new 30-ton capacity C-X twin-turbofan military transport.  While the TRDI-designed  “indigenous” Mitsubishi F-2 fighter has been marred by controversy, issues of U.S. intervention and a reduced purchase order, it did demonstrate TRDI’s capacity to design a 4th generation fighter and develop new technologies like advanced composite structures and active phased array radar.