Asian Security & Democracy Project

Nuclear Proliferation: The Next Wave
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on August 17th, 2008
On May 11, 1998 India tested a thermonuclear bomb. A short while later I found myself in India discussing this and other events with the then Minister of Defense George Fernandes. The talking point from Washington was that India had done this to warn Pakistan. Fernandes was careful to refute this specifically telling me that the bomb was intended to deter China and that suitable delivery systems would follow. To drive the point home he stated that the Prime Minister had specifically authorized him to state that the Chinese threat and not Pakistan was driving the Indian nuclear and defense program, then just entering its current phase of impressive modernization.

Post Olympic Prospects
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on August 25th, 2008
Cleaning up after the party often reveals a lot, and the world situation post Beijing Olympics is no exception. Let’s start with China, not forgetting, however, that the unexpected Georgia crisis effectively drove the Olympic events out of the headlines.  The story-board before the games began was essentially this: long humiliated and poor, China is announcing her return to the world stage in style, with the most lavish Olympics ever staged, featuring venues of the purest ultra-modern architecture, a multi media opening that will outshine anything seen before, the deployment for the first time of superb Chinese athletic talent garnering more gold medals than anyone, foreign heads of state making the trip who conspicuously had scheduling conflicts when it came to Athens--and lest anyone see it all as orchestrated or regimented, the whole package done up in the finest human rights rhetoric, with promises of full internet access and even an officially recognized right to protest.

Closer Look: Shenzhou-7’s Close Pass by the International Space Station
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 9th, 2008
On September 27, 2008 during its 31st orbit, China’s Shenzhou-7 space mission achieved two of its main objectives: China’s first manned extra vehicular activity (EVA) or space walk, and the first launch of the 40kg BX-1 microsatellite for the purposes of testing new microsatellite technologies, and observing and operating in cooperation with the Shenzhou.  The spacewalk by Chinese astronaut Zhai Zhigang received massive coverage in China and internationally and the microsatellite mission was also covered well by the Chinese media.  What the Chinese media did not cover, and even more surprisingly has so far gone unremarked by the United States or Russian governments, was the fact that about 4 hours after launching the BX-1, the Shenzhou-7 flew to a distance of about 45km (27 miles) from the International Space Station (ISS).

Conflict Prevention and Confidence Building Measures between Japan and China
by Vice Admiral (Ret.) Fumio Ota Ph.D.

Published on January 5th, 2009
Chinese leaders always say to Japanese leaders that Japan should look at history as a mirror. It means that Japan should not forget her brutal actions against China during the Sino-Japanese conflict in the late 1930s and the beginning of the 1940s. However, since this period Japan and China have changed considerably. Today, the China is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party and the Japan is democracy.  While history should not be forgotten, we must also judge a country by its current actions. A recent survey of world public opinion from 2005 to 2007 found that Japan is the country most widely viewed as having a positive influence, which is helped by the fact that Japan  has never used military power as a means for settling international conflicts after 1945. Since the People's Republic of China was established in 1949, the frequency of its use of military forces reaches the double digits.  On average, China has used military power every several years. In all cases, except for its support of North Vietnam’s war against South Vietnam, China has used force preemptively. China attacked the opponent first after careful preparation, whereas the opponent suffered from a surprise attack.

Looking Forward Korea
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on March 10th, 2009
North Korea has said that she will test fire a new long range missile sometime very soon. Here are four questions we should be considering...

Asian Waters
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on March 16th, 2009
News of the past ten days raised questions about China’s long term naval strategy. This has long been to reach the blue waters that lie frustratingly close to China’s coast, but access to which is blocked entirely from north to south by neighboring countries and the islands they control, from Korea and Cheju island; Japan’s home islands plus Okinawa and the Sakashima chain which ends just sixty miles short of Taiwan; to Taiwan herself and then the Philippines, all of which form a north south barrier closed by the west to east barrier of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. A look at the map shows that in order to reach blue water, Chinese ships would have to pass through one or another potential choke-point--the La Pérouse Strait between Russia and Hokkaido, the Tsugaru Strait between Honshu and Hokkaido, the Basho channel between Taiwan and the Philippines, or one of the exits from the South China Sea, either the Sunda or Malacca Strait.

Taiwan's Call to Arms
The Wall Street Journal Asia
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 19th, 2009
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense issued its Quadrennial Defense Review Monday, which attempts to explain strategy, justify to legislators required future military force levels and gather support for all-important defense budgets. In doing so, Taiwan's generals are attempting to square the circle of Taiwan's tortured defense debate against the backdrop of China's growing military threat.

Asian Waters II
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on March 21st, 2009
Tension in the South China Sea area has been rising for decades as disputes increase among littoral states about who exactly owns the hundreds of reefs, shoals, and islets that dot the 142,000 square mile expanse of water. The tensions are now flaring again. The Philippines have finally determined a base line or low tide mark, as required by the Law of the Sea, from which their various zones of sovereignty, economic exclusivity, etc, have been calculated. On the basis of these zones some but not all of the Spratly islands would come legally under Manila’s control. This seems to have set alarm bells ringing in China, which considers the entire sea to be its own internal waters.

Taiwan’s New China Policy
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on March 30th, 2009
For a year now Taiwan’s president Ma Yingjeou 馬英九 (b. 1950) has been implementing what might be called a “sunshine policy” toward China. He and his colleagues have high hopes that these policies will elicit Chinese reciprocation, bring a reduction of tension between the two countries, leading eventually to a reduction in the military confrontation over the Taiwan Strait. For a Taiwanese leader, however, this is uncharted diplomatic territory, filled with risks and land mines. The question is: will Ma succeed?

Terrorism Reaches China
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on March 29th, 2009
Last week the overseas Chinese newspapers were full of violent stories, mostly about the killing of officials in several localities by angry people. Simple content analysis of the media makes clear that the level of reported violence is rising, which in turn almost certainly reflects a real increase in incidence. All forms of violence worry the regime, but none perhaps more than terrorism, particularly that by oppressed non-Chinese groups such as the Tibetans. Now that nightmare may be in the process of becoming real.