The Eurasian Sand Table

The Russian Enigma
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on January 4th, 2005
To call Russia an “enigma,” while accurate enough, is a journalistic cliché, drawn from Winston Churchill’s celebrated phrase “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”

Russian Enigma Part Two
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on January 5th, 2005
Winston Churchill thought that the key to the USSR’s future behavior would be “Russian national interests.”  This sounded like wisdom at the time, but in fact it tells us nothing unless it specifies what exactly are Russian national interests—and on that there was no obvious single answer even at the end of World War II but rather a host of competing imperatives—not least the need to keep the Communists in power, regardless.

Russian Enigma Part Three
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on January 6th, 2005
When it comes to serving national interests through their foreign policies, few countries have ever proven very successful, whatever political theorists may tell us, and Russia in the decades ahead looks to be no exception.

Decentralization Reforms in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: Slowly and Unsteadily
by Marianna Gurtovnik

Published on July 24th, 2006
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the presidents of independent Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have publicly recognized devolution of authority to locally elected officials as an important step toward more responsive and transparent governments.However, both leaders have failed to match their words with action.

After Iraq
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on November 16th, 2006
As the end game for Iraq approaches, the United States looks set for its second clear-cut military defeat (Vietnam was the first)—and all the consequences that will bring.  Many seem to believe that the relevant parallel is with Vietnam: that the situation after American withdrawal will be a quick victory by those we have opposed, followed by peace and stability, other than for those Iraqis foolish enough to have joined us. That is completely untrue. If anything, an American exit will make things even worse.

After Iraq Part 2
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on December 6th, 2006
The “After” in “After Iraq” seems to have drawn considerably closer in the three weeks since this column last addressed the issue. As American support for the war dwindles and even the administration seeks exits, the states in the region and beyond are taking America’s measure and positioning themselves for the post-American phase.

Central Asia Winds of Change
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on April 4th, 2005
There has been a “change of sky” [biantian—i.e. the appearance of a new regime] in Kyrgyzstan, where the post-Soviet government, once one the most promising in Central Asia but later just another dictatorship, has been overthrown by people power, with its president fleeing to Moscow and then resigning. Almost certainly this is a glimpse of things to come, with immense strategic and economic interests at stake.

Musharraf Visits China: Current Issues In Pakistan-China Relations
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on February 25th, 2006
On the eve of President George W. Bush’s visit to India, Afghanistan and Pakistan the first week of March, Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf visited China from February 19 to 24.While public reports of his visit reveal little of its substance, it can be assumed that Musharraf and Chinese leaders addressed a range of strategic, nuclear, military, as well as economic concerns.However, with both Washington and Beijing in a galloping competition to court Delhi’s strategic alignment, Islamabad is anxious as well to seek assurances and added benefits from both its main strategic partners.At the same time, Beijing and Washington, from differing perspectives, want Pakistan’s leadership to crack down on terrorist groups that it is often unwilling to oppose.

Bangladesh: The Shift in the Balance of Terror in South Asia
by Sumon K. Chakrabarti

Published on March 13th, 2006
In Bangladesh the forces of secular Bengali nationalism are increasingly coming under challenge from radical Islam.. The change is manifest in the growth of the number of madrassas and Islamic NGOs and in institutional support from political and religious groups such as the Jamaat-e-Islami.

After Iraq Part 3: American Eclipse
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on December 16th, 2006
Quite unexpectedly American difficulties in Iraq are precipitating a shift in the entire world situation which though long in the making will nevertheless be disconcerting for all concerned.