Military Balance Databases

Chinese Notes from AeroIndia and IDEX
February 2005
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on February 28th, 2005
An indepth look at the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) programs obtained at two recent arms shows, AeroIndia in Bangalore, February 9-12 and IDEX, Abu Dhabi, February 12-17. Chinese armor, naval, missile and electronics companies were only at IDEX, traditionally one of their largest foreign displays. As a general observation, Chinese military modernization continues to accelerate in breadth and depth. Their general confidence and a growing desire for export sales impel the Chinese to reveal more systems previously kept secret.

China’s Military Power: An Assessment from Open Sources
Testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (as delivered)
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 27th, 2005
Historically, China has viewed itself as the dominant state in Asia, and it appears to be re-embracing this role via military means. This self-arrogated role will not be accepted by most neighbors, and has already raised concerns with a number of states to include Korea, Japan, India, Vietnam, Australia, and the Philippines, the majority of which have current territorial disputes with China.  The interests of these democratic countries, and of the United States, for stability in the region requires that a strengthening of alliances and commensurate joint training exercises should be considered urgently as a further effort to both deter and prepare against future Chinese aggressive actions.

Chinese Dimensions of the 2005 Moscow Aerospace Show
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on September 12th, 2005
The 2005 Moscow Aerospace Show or “Salon” (MAKS) came at a delicate time. It coincided with two demonstrations of Russian military power. The first was a strategic nuclear exercise involving a ballistic missile submarine launch and a Tu-160 bomber exercise, with one bomber piloted personally by President Vladimir Putin. The second was an unprecedented combined forces exercise with China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) called “Peace Mission 2005,” which allowed the PLA to test its decade and a half effort to build a modern military force against a true “peer” military.

China’s Manned Military Space Ambitions
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 10th, 2005
The imminent launch of China’s second manned space mission, called Shenzhou-6, perhaps as early as October 13, 2005, should draw attention to China’s manned and unmanned military space ambitions.The People’s Republic of China (PRC) uses its manned space program to serve scientific goals, like experimentation and eventual Moon exploration, and political purposes, such as advancing nationalist pride and impressing the world with China’s “peaceful rise.”China would also like to leverage its manned space program to achieve greater access to European and multi-national space programs like the U.S.-led International Space Station.

China’s New Navy
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on December 15th, 2005
The latest Congressional Research Service report on the Chinese Navy requires the attention of everyone seriously interested in Asian and global security issues. It describes a new and increasingly powerful force, being created at a very rapid pace, the mission of which is not at all clear.

2005: A Turning Point for China’s Aircraft Carrier Ambitions
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 8th, 2006
Since the early 1980s, when Western military officials began gaining tentative access to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) after decades of isolation, analysts have debated the question of whether China would build aircraft carriers. The events of 2005 have now given us the answer. Yes, China will build aircraft carriers. The debate now shifts to new questions: what type, what size, how many, and how soon?

People’s Liberation Army Leverage of Foreign Military Technology
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 22nd, 2006
Over the past 15 years the PLA’s ability to purchase, co-produce and absorb foreign weapons and foreign military technology has had played a decisive role in achieving the capabilities it now demonstrates, and will demonstrate in the near future.This report updates a 2004 review of foreign military systems and technologies acquired by the PLA and assessed their impact on then developing PLA capabilities.

Trouble Below: China’s submarines pose regional, strategic challenges
Armed Forces Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 6th, 2006
For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the United States faces a resurgent submarine challenge from a state that is seeking to challenge American pre-eminence in Asia, and likely beyond. China is making a large-scale investment in the building up and sustaining of its submarine force, along with impressive investments in submarine weapons, surface warship, combat aircraft and space assets to complement its submarine force. Since the early World War II Battle of the Atlantic, when Germany’s relatively small SSK fleet nearly knocked the U.S. out of the war, the U.S. has never let its strategic interests be so threatened by a foreign submarine fleet.

China's 'Power Projection'
Wall Street Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on April 13th, 2006
Just a year ago at the Shangri-La Conference in Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld asked, "Since no nation threatens China, one wonders: Why this growing investment? . . . Why these continuing large and expanding arms purchases?" The question was rhetorical -- because the answer is plain. China's accumulating military capabilities are decisively shifting the balance of military power in Asia, threatening American friends and allies from Japan to India -- and most seriously Taiwan. The buildup in the Taiwan Strait is raising the risk of war, giving China new tools to attack American forces if they defend the island, and laying foundations for future "power projection" capabilities that could limit American strategic options within the next decade.

Global Ambitions: As China's trade expands, so do its military horizons
Armed Forces Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on May 3rd, 2006
The flag follows trade, said Otto von Bismark. The “Iron Chancellor” knew a thing or two about strategy — even if he was a late convert to colonialism, and the efforts in Africa and the Pacific were a footnote to German imperialism. And, as the mastermind behind the rising industrial power of the last century, he might have a lesson to impart to today’s rising power, the People’s Republic of China. Likewise, the Kaiser’s decision to build a “risk fleet” — not designed to go toe to toe with the Royal Navy, but to give some maritime power-projection capabilities to a continental power — seems to have a 21st-century parallel. As China’s trade — the engine of its growth and the source of legitimacy for the regime in Beijing — expands, so do its strategic and military horizons.