Military Balance Databases

Chinese Dimensions of the 2007 Dubai Airshow
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 20th, 2008
Although located in a region of tension and conflict the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has successfully deterred foreign predation by building modern and professional armed forces and by maintaining a broad aviation talent by hosting some of the world’s most competitive airlines. The UAE has also made itself a center of the region’s civil and military aerospace trade by hosting two of the most popular arms shows, IDEX in Abu Dhabi and then the Dubai Airshow.  The 2007 Dubai Airshow from November 11 to 15 proved a boon for the airline and military aircraft industry, with over $100 billion in orders registered for over 500 aircraft.

Update: China’s Aircraft Carriers
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 10th, 2009
China’s decision in mid-December 2008 to dispatch a small People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) task force of two destroyers to police against Somalia’s pirates has been greeted as a hopeful sign that China may use its growing naval capabilities positively; one Chinese commentator said it “shows the world that China is a large responsible nation.”  Nevertheless, China struck a nationalist tone to its participation, refusing to join the American-led multinational naval Task Force 151, though engaging in an uneven information exchange with the U.S. side.  A less benign demonstration was a far less noted December 9, 2008 incident in the East China Sea, in which two Chinese Marine Surveillance Agency ships apparently made use of the PLA’s increasingly capable space and electronic information capabilities, to calculate the precise moment when Japanese Coast Guard ships would not be present to thwart China’s latest effort to assert its sovereignty over the disputed Senkaku Islands. 

The Implications of China’s Naval Modernization for the United States
Testimony before the U.S. –China Economic and Security Review Commission
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on June 11th, 2009
Recent statements by paramount leader Hu Jintao and others indicate that China is now signaling its political intent, and indeed is beginning to assemble the naval forces, to begin to defend China’s wide ranging interests further abroad. However, China does not provide for its citizens or for foreign parties, a clear explanation of its evolving maritime interests, naval doctrines and naval equipment modernization programs. Repeated calls for greater military transparency are largely ignored because the ruling Communist Party shares China’s historical aversion to such, and it does not have to provide expansive details of the doctrine, strategies or hardware modernization objectives of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to an adversarial legislature or press.

The Asian Airpower Balance: Challenges from Chinese and Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter Programs
The Hudson Institute

Published on September 14th, 2009
In July, the Obama Administration defeated congressional attempts to reverse the administration's April decision to end production of the F-22, currently the world's only fifth-generation fighter. With Russia and China developing fifth-generation fighter programs, the United States could find itself ceding its aerial dominance. In cooperation with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, Hudson Institute examined the strategic implications for U.S. airpower in Asia. Speaking at this conference were Richard Fisher, Senior Fellow, the International Assessment and Strategy Center and author of China's Military Modernization, Building for Regional and Global Reach; aviation expert Rebecca Grant, Senior Fellow at the Lexington Institute; and Reuben Johnson, a correspondent for Jane's Information Group and a consultant on international aircraft issues. Hudson Institute CEO Kenneth Weinstein introduced the event, and Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Seth Cropsey moderated the discussion.

Too Little, Too Late: AirSea Battle Concept May Lag China's Capabilities
Defense Technology International
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on June 1st, 2011
It is no secret that long-term U.S. Air Force and Navy planning is focused on China. This alone is straining U.S.-China relations, as well as triggering U.S. domestic criticism from those who regard war with China as inconceivable, and an internal squabble between China-focused planners and “bootcentric” Army and Marine leaders.

Report On the International Defense Exhibition and Seminar (IDEAS)
September 14-17, 2004, Karachi, Pakistan
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 29th, 2004
A welcome relaxation in tension between India and Pakistan in mid-2004 has not included any reduction in their respective ambitious military modernization programs.Pakistan’s defense industries displayed their progress and welcomed current and prospective defense partners at their third bi-annual International Defense Exhibition and Seminar (IDEAS) from September 14 to 17, 2004.Held in Karachi, the show received very high attention from the Pakistani leadership and military.President Pervez Musharraf opened the event, and all the service chiefs were in attendance.This report benefits from interviews with many Pakistani military officers and corporate officials. The author is especially grateful for the insights of Pakistan Air Force Commander Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat.

Submarine Incident Highlights Military Buildup
Asian Wall Street Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on November 17th, 2004
Recent revelations that Japanese naval forces spotted and shadowed a Chinese nuclear submarine in Japanese territorial waters have drawn attention to China's maritime ambitions.

Report on the 5th Airshow China
Zhuhai, PRC, November 1-7, 2004
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on December 13th, 2004
The November 1-6, 2004 Airshow China/Zhuhai Airshow is the 5th such airshow to be held in Zhuhai, PRC.This year’s show offered three main themes: 1) the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aerospace sector exhibits growing over-capacity and redundancy but shows no lack of government funding; 2) greater creativity is being derived from increased internal competition and industrial cooperation; and 3) manned and unmanned space programs are receiving greater emphasis.

Developing US-Chinese Nuclear Naval Competition In Asia
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 16th, 2005
Recent revelations from Washington that China has launched its first second generation nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) point to the revival of a very Cold War style of military competition. As it did versus the former Soviet Union and does to a lesser extent against Russia today, the United States can be expected to counter China’s SSBN build up. So too can the Japanese, the Koreans, the Russians, the Indians, and others who are directly threatened. Chinese actions to date suggest that it may attempt to use its growing nuclear naval assets to enforce highly dubious territorial claims in her neighborhood, setting the stage for future naval "incidents," or even clashes.

How May Europe Strengthen China’s Military?
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 15th, 2005
In early December 2004 the European Union (EU) decided "in principle" to lift the embargo on arms sales to China put in place after the Tiananmen massacre of 1989. Washington is strongly opposed. But if the Europeans go ahead, then the question for the United States—and its friends and allies in Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, India, and even Australia—will be: what can the Europeans provide that China does not already have, and how would such provision affect US and allied security?