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The 2006 Mayoral Elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung

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by Hsiao-ching Chang
Published on December 8th, 2006
ARTICLES

IASC is pleased to announce that Ms. Hsiao-ching Chang has joined us as a Visiting Fellow. Among her responsibilities will be writing regular columns that provide detailed factual information and informed analysis of Taiwan.

Her work will help to meet an urgent need.

President Jimmy Carter (born 1924) cut Washington’s diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979, believing that only a few years would pass before that blow led the island to join China and thus rendered specific knowledge of it unimportant. Most countries of the world did similarly.

To near universal surprise, however, Taiwan did not join China. Instead she unexpectedly democratized. Political prisoners were released, the press made free, political parties formed and an electoral process put in place. In the thirty years since Carter’s action, Taiwan’s political landscape has developed, becoming ever more complex and competitive—and expressing the interests of the people who live on the island.

No longer are issues respecting Taiwan properly analyzed as part of "China policy" if indeed they ever were. The island is bigger than Belgium and more populous than Australia. Views that would have led to imprisonment or execution under the dictatorship of Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) are now at the center of political debate. It is a place in itself.

The years since 1979 have seen Taiwan become stronger and more confident than she was under the dictatorship, and also more important to the world, politically, economically, and strategically.

For the United States, Taipei should probably be numbered among our dozen most important diplomatic postings (though our representative there is "unofficial"). For Japan that would be Tokyo’s half-dozen most important (and the Japanese representative is also "unofficial").

Government attention and media coverage do not reflect this reality. An artificial diplomatic isolation has been imposed on the island. Some people are still living in the 1970s, waiting for negotiations to make Taiwan part of China. Others, seeking to make their careers, avoid spending time on a place that, rhetorically, has been demoted. Above all, even veteran reporters and diplomats are baffled by the half-dozen political parties with many factions, the regional differences, the fractious legislature, the free-wheeling media, almost all in languages that are among the most difficult.

So we know far less about Taiwan than we should and need to.

Hsiao-ching Chang was born in Taiwan. She received her A.B. from National Taiwan University, and a Master’s Degree in Political Science from the University of Chicago. She has worked for the Chinese language daily World Journal, in the United States and for the Taiwan Think Tank in Taiwan.

We welcome this, her first essay, for IASC.

--Arthur Waldron

Taiwan votes tomorrow for the mayors in its two most important cities: the capital, Taipei, in the north, and Kaohsiung in the south. Located near the southern tip of the island, Kaohsiung is Taiwan’s the second largest city, a major industrial center, and the most important international harbor.

Politically it is also very important. Neither the ruling Democratic Progressive Party nor the opposition Kuomintang can really afford to lose it.

For the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the Kaohsiung mayoral election forecasts the 2008 presidency. Without being in power in either Taipei or Kaohsiung, it is difficult for the DPP to imagine winning in other future major elections.

Losing Taipei County in the 2005 magistrate election has already been a big loss for the DPP, and the chance for them to win in the mayoralty in Taipei this time is very small. So the DPP will have to gain victory in Kaohsiung or face a grim future, A loss would almost certainly lead to the resignations of both Premier Su Tseng-chang (born 1947) and DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun (born 1948).

The Kuomintang has not held Kaohsiung for eight years. But this election offers a them a potential win. Although the electorate structure in Kaohsiung favors the DPP, the overall political atmosphere favors the KMT. If the KMT can take over both Kaohisung and Taipei municipalities, it will be a great inspiration for the opposition party and an encouragement for them to move on to the 2008 presidency.

In the Kaohsiung mayoral race we see the KMT candidate Mr. Huang Jun-ying and the DPP candidate Ms. Chen Chu, In addition are the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) candidate Mr. Luo Chi-ming, the Taiwan Defense Alliance (TDA) candidate Mr. Lin Chi-sheng, and independent candidate Mr. Lin Ching-yuan.

Registered voters in Kaohsiung city are about one million, and estimated voting rate is 75%. Latest opinion polls released in early December show Huang Jun-ying with the highest popularity, having about 40% of the voters’ support; 29% of voters support Chen, and 1% support Luo.

Huang has always been the front-runner since September and risen to 38% of support since November. Chen Chu’s popularity is comparatively lower, between 20% to 30%. Recently Huang has not gained while Chen is enjoying a steady progress. Chen’s popularity was about 24% in early November, and it went up to about 26% in mid November and reached 29% in late November and early December. The gap between the two candidates is getting smaller as the election day approaches.

Many voters are undecided. undecided voters, The number reached to 39% in late October and gradually declined to 30% in early December. This suggests that most of the undecided are potential Chen supporters The question is whether Chen can encourage these potential supporters to come out and vote for her. If they remain silent, Huang is likely to win. But if they decide to support Chen, 30% of the voters can lead to an upset of the KMT candidate.

Over the past six years, since winning the presidency, the DPP has achieved relatively little, in part owing to opposition control of the legislature. Recent scandals involving the First Lady, and other DPP figures, have further destroyed the party’s image. The general political trend would seem to be against DPP. For this reason, having Chen elected as Kaohsiung city mayor is top priority. DPP Chairman Yu has led a campaign team south, staying in Kaohsiung and stumping for Chen. President Chen Shui-bian (born 1950) as well as other important DPP figures also campaigned for Chen Chu on the last weekend before election. For the DPP, it is a life or death battle.

Chen Chu was born in 1950 in Yilan County, Taiwan. She earned her MA in Public Affairs at National Sun Yat-sen University in Kaohsiung. Chen was one of the prominent dissidents arrested after the Kaohsiung Incident in 1979, a demonstration broken up by police under the then martial-law government of Taiwan, and was jailed for six years. In 1991, she was elected as a representative to the National Assembly by Kaohsiung residents. In 1998, she served as the chief of the Kaohsiung City Government’s Social Affairs Bureau. Chen has also served in the central government as a Minister of the Council of Labor Affairs under President Chen Shui-bian’s administration between 2000 to 2005. She resigned in the wake of a scandal concerning Thai laborers brought into Taiwan to work on the Kaohsiung Mass Rapid Transit system project.

Chen Chu has been known as an indomitable, can-do politician, and voices supporting the DPP have always been strong in Kaohsiung. These factors should have made Chen Chu an easy winner.

However, problems with the DPP’s current image and factionalism within the party have hurt Chen. Interestingly, the general national political situation has not had as much an effect on the KMT;s Huang, as it has on Chen. Although Chen Chu’s popularity steadily climbed up in October, the indictment of the first lady and the resignation of the two DPP legislators rolled down her support again in early November. The support for Chen showed in opinion polls is volatile and correlated to current affairs. Chen Chu’s top campaign aid Li Kun-zeh said that any negative news about the DPP in the very last days before election may have a decisive effect on the result.

The DPP disagreed about who should be the DPP Kaohsiung mayoral candidate before Chen Chu was nominated. Chen Chu was challenged by the DPP legislator Guan Bi-ling in March over her handling of the tender for the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corp construction project. An influential DPP member, former acting Kaohsiung city mayor Chen Chi-mai also sought the DPP nomination. (Chen Chi-mai succeeded mayor Hsieh Chang-ting when Hsieh was appointed the Premier in the national government in February 2005). Some Kaohsiung legislators advocated nomination of the then acting Kaohsiung city mayor Yeh Chu-lan to be the candidate. Although the DPP finally decided to nominate Chen Chu to run for the election, the party was not united.

Problems at the national level, however, have led the DPP to understand the difficulties they are undergoing and the importance of their uniting to win the election. After all, Kaohsiung is the DPP’s "southern bastion" and they cannot afford to lose it.

Compared to the DPP, the KMT is more united in this election. The KMT Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Huang Jun-ying has made an effort in soothing the split caused by the primary, and has invited leaders from various local regions to join his campaign team. Huang has made a good performance in all the opinion polls until now. His aide suggests that to proceed steadily and step by step is the best policy for sending Huang into the Kaohsiung City Hall.

Mr. Huang Jun-ying was born in 1941 in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Huang is Vice President of I-Shou University in Kaohsiung County, Taiwan. He holds a Ph.D. in Business Philosophy in the University of Iowa, and MBA in Michigan State University. He was the deputy mayor when Wu Dun-yi (KMT) was the Kaohsiung city mayor, and has been in several positions in the Kaohsiung city government. In the 2002 Kaohsiung mayoral election, Huang lost Hsieh Chang-ting (DPP) by 24,838 votes.

Although Huang is not new to Kaohsiung political circles, as a scholar, he will need local leaders’ support. Four important KMT figures serve on his honorary committee: senior Kaohsiung politician Chen Tian-mao, former Minister of the Examination Ministry Hsu Shui-teh, Premier Wang Jing-pyng, and former Kaohsiung city mayor Wu Dun-yi. By inviting Chen Tian-mao and Wang Jing-pyng, Huang proclaims to other local figures that he has earned major support among KMT in southern Taiwan. Both Hsu Shui-teh and Wu Dun-yi were former Kaohsiung mayors, and Huang wishes to position himself as their successor.

Many of the nine competitors in the KMT primary are also members of Huang’s campaign team. Besides, several Kaohsiung legislators of the People First Party (PFP) are also member of Huang’s campaign committee, as a symbol that Huang is the single "pan-blu"e candidate in Kaohsiung, contrasting with the split pan-blue force in Taipei or Huang’s divided pan-green adversary in Kaohsiung. (Very roughly, Blue is the color associated with the KMT, which came from China in 1945, while Green denotes those emerging from the indigenous Taiwanese who eventually formed the DPP)

Right now, Huang still holds the upper hand. Huang has led Chen by about 10% since mid October. Even the recent scandal regarding Taipei mayor Ma Ying-jeou’s (born 1950) special allowance scandal has not had major influence on Huang. But the gap between Huang and Chen is not as big as it was in the beginning of the campaign, and the undecided voters are still Huang’s big concern. Huang’s top campaign aide Chen Tsue-shang observes that for loyal supporters of either Chen or Huang, neither the national affairs fund scandal affecting President Chen Shui-bian, nor the Taipei mayoral allowance scandal affecting Ma Ying-jeou will change their votes. Therefore, while Huang needs to secure his basic supporters, he also has to avoid provoking his adversary, causing the unification of the l"ight-greens" and leading them to vote for Chen.

Both the Huang and the Chen’s camp would agree that the election is tight. The candidate of the Taiwan Solidarity Union (created by former President Lee Teng-hui, born 1923) will not draw many votes, though those that Luo does draw will likely come from potential "green" voters. Far more important will be whether the DPP is able to unite and convince the fence-sitters among its natural constituency to come out and vote.

Reverberations from the Kaohsiung mayoral election will be felt nationally, whatever the outcome. If the KMT wins, that will be a body blow to the DPP. If the DPP wins, the KMT’s current national advantage will be diluted. Neither the blues nor the greens are well united. In this fluid situation, the outcome in Kaohsiung will be both a powerful factor and an important indicator.

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