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Iran in Latin America: Threat or Axis of Annoyance?
Senior Fellow Douglas Farah's analysis of the debate over the level of threat posed by Iran's expanding diplomatic, trade and military presence in Latin America, and its stated ambition to continue to broaden these ties.
Chinese Naval Modernization: Altering the Balance of Power
Richard Fisher details China's naval modernization program and the potential impacts on U.S. interests in the Western Pacific.
Submarine Incident Highlights Military Buildup
Asian Wall Street Journal
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Recent revelations that Japanese naval forces spotted and shadowed a Chinese nuclear submarine in Japanese territorial waters have drawn attention to China's maritime ambitions.
Last week was a disaster for Beijing's much-praised diplomacy heralding its "peaceful rise" in Asia. On Nov. 9, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused Tokyo of having a "Cold War mentality," over a report outlining Beijing's military threat that was recently submitted to Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi by the Araki Commission. Yet within 24 hours, this protest was thrown back in Beijing's face by Tokyo's revelation of the discovery of a Chinese nuclear submarine in waters close to Japanese islands south of the Okinawa chain.
Senior Japanese government officials queried as this incident unfolded last week said the incident highlighted their growing concern with China's ongoing military, and especially naval buildup, and the threat it poses to Japanese economic-security interests. Most were concerned that the submarine's proximity to the Senkaku islands, which are claimed by China as the Diayou group, was intended to ratchet up tensions over this long-disputed island group. They saw it as consistent with a recent pattern of increasingly frequent visits by Chinese "survey" ships to waters near Japanese areas of concern.
Some Japanese officials suggested the submarine incursion was an early indication of Beijing's willingness to intensify efforts to extract oil from these disputed waters. Others saw it as a warning to Japan not to become enmeshed in Washington's efforts to defend Taiwan, in the event China decided to use force to "unify" the island with the mainland.
China's rapid naval expansion is undeniable. It includes new nuclear and non-nuclear submarines, advanced air-defense ships, Russian and Chinese-built naval fighter-bombers, and an expansion of bases to support these forces. Most of this buildup is designed to support any military operation against Taiwan -- a prospect which is causing increasing concern in Tokyo.
But there are also strategic implications reaching far beyond Taiwan. A new naval base on Hainan Island will shortly allow the North Sea Fleet and the South Sea Fleet of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to support nuclear-submarine operations. China will then have the ability to deploy new nuclear attack submarines in sea lanes as far away as the Persian Gulf, nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) capable of targeting the United States or India. By the end of this decade the PLAN could have 50-60 modern or moderately-capable submarines in service. That probably exceeds the number of U.S. attack submarines available for global commitments, and is far in excess of Japan's own fleet of 18 non-nuclear submarines.
Japanese officials noted that the submarine involved in last week's incident belonged to the older generation of Chinese submarines. It was one of the five Type 091, or Han-class first generation nuclear attack submarines, that were conceived in the 1960s and ceased being built after 1990s. While the first is reportedly already being decommissioned, the last three remain operational and are understood to have been improved with Russian nuclear-engine technology, weapons, and French combat systems.
But China is also aggressive building more modern submarines. Officials in two Asian governments confirm the construction of a third Type 093 second generation nuclear-attack submarine, which benefits from more advanced Russian technology and is expected to carry new land-attack cruise missiles. A further three could be built by the end of the decade.
Even more non-nuclear submarines are being built. By 2007 the PLAN will have 12 Russian Kilo class conventional subs. Most will be armed with "Club" anti-ship missile, which have a range of 136 miles. Taiwanese sources also expect the PLAN to build 10 to 15 of its new Type 039A "Song" conventional sub, modeled on the French Agosta-class sub. In June, the PLAN started building a further class of submarine, dubbed the "Yuan" by the U.S. Navy. There are indications that it may be more capable than the Song, and perhaps better than the Kilo, incorporating modern air-independent propulsion technology that increases how long it can stay submerged. In addition, China still has about 20 older Type 035 "Ming" class submarines, and may keep most of these in service for use in any blockade operations around Taiwan.
Beijing's military buildup also continues in other areas. China recently launched the first of its second generation Type 094 SSBN. Armed with 16 new JL-2 nuclear-ballistic missiles that have a range of 5,000 miles, these SSBNs will form China's first reliable nuclear "second strike" capability. There are also continuing indications that the PLAN retains its fervent ambition to build large conventional aircraft carriers, which could initially be armed with Russian-built Sukhoi fighter bombers.
China's military buildup, especially in the naval arena, has prompted some Japanese legislators to press the Ministry of Finance to increase defense spending. At the very least, it may prompt the ministry to rethink plans to cut back funding for the P-3C anti-submarine patrol aircraft that were at the center of last week's submarine hunt.
But some Japanese legislators realize that a simple increase in defense spending will not defend Japan against a comprehensive Chinese military buildup. Tokyo will have to realize its interest in deterring Chinese aggression including having an active stake in protecting Taiwan against attack. They also believe that Japan will have to develop an offensive capability, including cruise missiles that can survive new sophisticated Chinese air defenses.
It took almost a week, including some undiplomatic rhetoric by Beijing's ambassador to Tokyo, before China belatedly apologized to Japan for its submarine incursion yesterday. When will it dawn on Beijing's foreign policy elite that by adopting such an attitude they are only promoting the "Cold War mentality" they profess to avoid?
