China

Air Sea Battle (China + Allies) Threat Projections:Thinking In and Outside the Box
For the National Defense University Program: Strategies for Defeating Anti-Access/Area Denial Capabilities,
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on November 15th, 2011
IASC Fellow Richard Fisher provides a briefing that examines key “hardware” trends for air-sea battles in East Asia. Importantly, the review of China’s threat potential considers the capabilities China could bring to bear over the next two to three decades, both inside the East Asian “box” and well outside that box.

Military Space Ambitions of the People’s Republic of China and How Near Term PRC-U.S. Cooperation with China In Outer Space Could Threaten U.S. Interests
Testimony before United States House of Representatives, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on November 2nd, 2011
It is highly questionable whether the United States and the PRC can find a basis for cooperation in space that would then cause a fundamentally positive change to their relations here on Earth. As with the former Soviet Union, any real change in PRC relations with the U.S. will depend far more on a transformation away from the current Communist Party dictatorship and its military guarantors toward an open, accountable democratic system.  The PRC Party-Military amalgam depends on domestic repression and recurrent reference to so-called external threats to remain in power. In fact, we see each of these escalating dangerously of late, leading to notable expressions of concern from its neighbors, this Congress and indeed this Administration. In such a context there is little NASA can do to effect positive change -- whilst conversely, it could do a great deal of harm to U.S. interests if it were to continue to enable the PRC to extract one-sided advantage from U.S. science and space technologies.

Asymmetric Options for the Defense of Taiwan: U.S. Missile Technology
Briefing for IASC Congressional Forum: Is Taiwan Defendable?
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 26th, 2011
Over the medium to long run the democratic government in Taiwan will not be able to purchase or afford the weapons necessary to deter military attack or coercion by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), forcing political concessions that could lead to an end to Taiwan’s democratic era.  At the same time, the United States will find itself increasingly constrained in ability to deter Chinese attack or coercion, both by its reductions in military growth compared to that of the PLA, and its unwillingness to risk conflict with the PRC over the sale of larger and more weapons to Taiwan. Following Taiwan’s decision over a decade ago to seek new “asymmetric” deterrent means, like new precision attack missiles, the U.S. appears to be warming to the idea of assisting Taiwan in pursuing “asymmetric” capabilities.  Though this “reappraisal” has not been fully explained, there may be an opportunity to shape its content. 

China’s Maturing Fighter Force
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 15th, 2011
Following an intensive twenty year investment, which has included obtaining significant foreign help, the air forces of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have reached a number of milestones that point to the likelihood of an accelerating growth in capability through this decade.  Perhaps one of the most jarring indicators of this rapid maturation is that within five years of the reported retiring of its last 2nd generation fighter unit of Shenyang J-6s in 2005, the PLA started testing prototypes of its 5th generation Chengdu “J-20” in 2010.  Furthermore, less than a decade following the 2004 service entry of the “indigenous” 4th generation Chengdu J-10 fighter, a new 4+ generation variant called the “J-10B” is expected to enter production in late 2011 or 2012.  It has taken the PLA roughly 20 years to leap from production of third generation fighters to testing of its 5th generation fighter, whereas this process took 30 years for the United States.

Mongolia Moves Toward Europe and Implications for the OSCE
Testimony for The U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (U.S. Helsinki Commission)
by John Tkacik

Published on October 12th, 2011
On the question of Mongolia's application for status as a participating state in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Mongolia has become even more important geopolitically – in every way – to America’s and Europe’s security.  The imperative of giving Mongolia status as a participating OSCE state lies in its geopolitical importance in Eurasia, specifically as a moderating influence in relations between Russia and China.Mongolians themselves are acutely sensitive to their role as a buffer between Eurasia’s two most massive powers. They understand the absolute necessity of not allowing their land to become a satellite of either great power lest the other great power seek to rebalance in the opposite direction. Mongolians descriptively call their strategy the “Third Neighbor Policy.”

Looking Forward: Call for war in the South China Sea

Published on September 30th, 2011
A few weeks ago I wrote about the scare I had when the Chinese navy intercepted an Indian vessel leaving Vietnam on the high seas, claiming it was violating Chinese territorial waters. Now we all have much more cause for concern. An important article calling for war with Vietnam and the Philippines was published 27 September in the Global Times, a tabloid format Party newspaper owned by the highest official Chinese government mouthpiece, the People’s Daily. It remained the lead story at the newspaper’s website for almost two days and is still posted as I write (29 September). Yet the Washington Times appears to be the only Western newspaper to have picked it up.

Looking Forward: Illusions About China Come Home To Roost
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on September 5th, 2011
The news that the Chinese had confronted an Indian naval vessel on the high seas as it left Vietnam shook and alarmed me more than any other incident has in the four decades since I started study of Chinese. China would appear suddenly to be in a hurry to become the dominant power in Asia. She has laid claim as territorial waters to the whole of what in Chinese is called “nanhai” the “South Sea” and in English the “South China Sea”—some 648,000 square miles. Now she seems to have set her course to enforce this—despite the fact that the claim has no historical merit, violates established international law, and puts China at odds with nearly all of her neighbors.

China’s Space Plane Program
Briefing: USAF-HQ Strategic Studies Group
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on August 24th, 2011
China is aggressively persuing a reusable launch vehicle (RLV) program of research that could lead to one or two early RLV concepts under consideration. The first could be similar in size in the U.S. Space Shuttle, but with less than a third of its cargo capacity. The other RLV proposal would not leave the atmosphere but would carry a second rocket stage that would put a small payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO). China’s RLV program, however, is not nearly as transparent as the U.S. Space Shuttle program and the current status of China’s RLV program is not known. Data suggests that RLV research is well under way and that a smaller space plane called the Shenlong has been used to validate many space plane technologies. Scant data also suggests that pending a decision to proceed, China’s goal is to launch its RLV by about 2020, around the same time it plans to loft its 60 ton Space Station. It is not known whether China is meeting success in developing the requisite space plane technology, but in China’s official media the space plane gets little attention compared to the Space Station. China’s space plane program is also at the cutting edge of what appears to be a more ambitions military hypersonic vehicle program.

Taiwan in the Lurch
Wall Street Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on August 19th, 2011
According to a report in Defense News, the Obama administration quietly informed Taiwanese officials last week that Washington won't supply Taipei with new fighter jets. Since 2006, Taipei has asked to buy 66 new F-16 C/D fighters, but it will only get an upgrade of its older F-16s with better radar.  This may have taken one contentious issue off the table for U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's trip to China this week. But that harmony comes at the cost of weakening America's longstanding commitment to Taiwan's autonomy.

China’s Space Plane Program
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 27th, 2011
On July 21, 2011 at 5:57am the United States Space Shuttle Atlantis touched down ending the final mission of 30 years of Shuttle operations.  Praised as the most complex flying machine yet made by man and as the most famous example of American technological prowess, the Shuttle has also been criticized by many as an expensive Cadillac that failed to perform as advertised and shackled the U.S. to Low Earth Orbit.  But it is a fact that U.S. has no plans to build a similarly sized reusable launch vehicle (RLV).  China, however, in a series of  conference presentations made by engineers from the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), have outlined a program of research that could lead to one or two early RLV concepts under consideration. The first could be similar in size in the U.S. Space Shuttle, but with less than a third of its cargo capacity.  The other RLV proposal would not leave the atmosphere but would carry a second rocket stage that would put a small payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO).  While these papers provide useful insights, China’s RLV program is not nearly as transparent as the U.S. Space Shuttle program and the current status of China’s RLV program is not known. However, scant data suggests that RLV research is well under way and that a smaller space plane called the Shenlong has been used to validate many space plane technologies. Scant data also suggests that pending a decision to proceed, China’s goal is to launch its RLV by about 2020, around the same time it plans to loft its 60 ton Space Station.  It is not known whether China is meeting success in developing the requisite space plane technology, but in China’s official media the space plane gets little attention compared to the Space Station. China’s space plane program is also at the cutting edge of what appears to be a more ambitions military hypersonic vehicle program.