Central Asia

Nuclear Proliferation: The Next Wave
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on August 17th, 2008
On May 11, 1998 India tested a thermonuclear bomb. A short while later I found myself in India discussing this and other events with the then Minister of Defense George Fernandes. The talking point from Washington was that India had done this to warn Pakistan. Fernandes was careful to refute this specifically telling me that the bomb was intended to deter China and that suitable delivery systems would follow. To drive the point home he stated that the Prime Minister had specifically authorized him to state that the Chinese threat and not Pakistan was driving the Indian nuclear and defense program, then just entering its current phase of impressive modernization.

A New Era in Sino-Indian Relations or Deja-vu All Over Again?
by June Teufel Dreyer, Ph.D

Published on January 19th, 2008
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s mid-January visit to Beijing produced the standard cant of high level diplomatic exchanges, dutifully repeated by the media and several Western analysts.  Singh, who received a red carpet welcome at the Beijing airport, said that bilateral ties were now poised to enter a “vibrant and dynamic phase,” and that India attached high priority to strengthening its relations with China, which was a focal point in its Look East policy. Disputes, said Singh, could be solved in the Asian way of avoiding confrontation while building trust, confidence, and consensus. China and India, echoed India’s minister of trade and industry, were now seen as the engines of economic growth by the rest of the world.  Particularly since the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States and other factors engendered fear of an economic recession in the west, investors’ hopes had turned to Asia.

The Challenge of Failed and Failing States, The Muslim Brotherhood and Radical Islam*
by Douglas Farah

Published on July 11th, 2007
The emergence of a generation of radical Islamist movements, the root of which is the Muslim Brootherhood, is fueld by twin, seemlingly contradictory phenomena: global integration through free trade, the dawn of the Internet age and mass migrations; and global disintegration as states implode, government structures fracture under the accumulated scourges of corruption, poverty and renewed ethnic rivalries, and the massive traffic in small weapons that gives more and more groups the possibility of waging conflict at very little cost.

“To Our Great Detriment”
Ignoring What Extremists Say About Jihad
by Stephen C. Coughlin, Esq.

Published on July 2nd, 2007
In comments made at the National Defense University on 1 December 2005, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Peter Pace explained to his audience the importance of “understand[ing] the nature of the enemy” if we hope to defeat jihadi extremists.  Comparing our situation today, with that faced by an earlier generation who had to deal with the reality of the Nazi threat, General Pace suggested a simple solution to complying with his injunction:  “read what our enemies have said.  Remember Hitler….  He said in writing exactly what his plan was that we collectively ignored to our great detriment (emphasis added).”  Just as we ignored Hitler’s articulation of his strategic doctrine in Mein Kampf, so too are we on the verge of suffering a similar fate today, if we fail to seriously assess the extremist threat based on jihadi strategic doctrine.

After Iraq
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on November 16th, 2006
As the end game for Iraq approaches, the United States looks set for its second clear-cut military defeat (Vietnam was the first)—and all the consequences that will bring.  Many seem to believe that the relevant parallel is with Vietnam: that the situation after American withdrawal will be a quick victory by those we have opposed, followed by peace and stability, other than for those Iraqis foolish enough to have joined us. That is completely untrue. If anything, an American exit will make things even worse.

The Strategic Challenge of Failed States
by Douglas Farah

Published on September 25th, 2006
The number of failed or “fragile” states has jumped in the past three years—from 17 to 26—according to a recent study by the World Bank, showing significant deterioration in the global security situation. The extent of the downward spiral is even more notable when compared to a similar World Bank study conducted in 1996 that found only 11 failed states. These While talking about the threat posed by failed states  is now accepted, the next step must be to build an understanding of what attracts different groups to what regions, mapping the overlapping networks among non-state actors and developing a strategy that denies these sanctuaries to enemies who are working hard to exploit and expand them.

Decentralization Reforms in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: Slowly and Unsteadily
by Marianna Gurtovnik

Published on July 24th, 2006
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the presidents of independent Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have publicly recognized devolution of authority to locally elected officials as an important step toward more responsive and transparent governments.However, both leaders have failed to match their words with action.

Splits Between Muslim Brotherhood and “Offensive Jihadists” Brewing in Europe
by Douglas Farah

Published on May 16th, 2006
Across Europe, according to intelligence sources, the international Muslim Brotherhood (al-Ikhwan al Moslemoon) is competing for recruits, cash and ideological and theological predominance with armed, radicalized Islamist groups operating in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and elsewhere. This competition is a growing part of the Islamist landscape that intelligence services see as both dangerous and offering potential openings to exploit frictions and divisions.

Notes from London
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on March 21st, 2006
Plenty is being said, but very few people are asking the big and important questions about the future of the Middle East: not in Washington, and certainly not here in Europe, specifically London.

Bangladesh: The Shift in the Balance of Terror in South Asia
by Sumon K. Chakrabarti

Published on March 13th, 2006
In Bangladesh the forces of secular Bengali nationalism are increasingly coming under challenge from radical Islam.. The change is manifest in the growth of the number of madrassas and Islamic NGOs and in institutional support from political and religious groups such as the Jamaat-e-Islami.