Military - Air Forces

A Strategic Challenge In China’s New Tactical Fighter Exports
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on February 7th, 2012
As part of its campaign to build global strategic influence China is offering increasingly sophisticated weapons exports that it uses to reinforce important political and economic relationships.  China is no longer a last resort supplier of cheap but obsolete weapons for isolated regimes; it can now offer a full range of weapons that are increasingly competitive with Western systems in capability and very competitive in terms of price.  This increase in both capability and value is creating new weapons sales opportunities for China in non-traditional regions.  This dynamic is starting to play out in Latin America, where China’s success in selling inexpensive training aircraft and radar could lead to sales of more sophisticated air combat systems. 

Air Sea Battle (China + Allies) Threat Projections:Thinking In and Outside the Box
For the National Defense University Program: Strategies for Defeating Anti-Access/Area Denial Capabilities,
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on November 15th, 2011
IASC Fellow Richard Fisher provides a briefing that examines key “hardware” trends for air-sea battles in East Asia. Importantly, the review of China’s threat potential considers the capabilities China could bring to bear over the next two to three decades, both inside the East Asian “box” and well outside that box.

China’s Maturing Fighter Force
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 15th, 2011
Following an intensive twenty year investment, which has included obtaining significant foreign help, the air forces of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have reached a number of milestones that point to the likelihood of an accelerating growth in capability through this decade.  Perhaps one of the most jarring indicators of this rapid maturation is that within five years of the reported retiring of its last 2nd generation fighter unit of Shenyang J-6s in 2005, the PLA started testing prototypes of its 5th generation Chengdu “J-20” in 2010.  Furthermore, less than a decade following the 2004 service entry of the “indigenous” 4th generation Chengdu J-10 fighter, a new 4+ generation variant called the “J-10B” is expected to enter production in late 2011 or 2012.  It has taken the PLA roughly 20 years to leap from production of third generation fighters to testing of its 5th generation fighter, whereas this process took 30 years for the United States.

Sky Stalkers: Chinese military commits to broad UAV development
Defense Technology International
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 1st, 2011
China was until the late 1990s content to follow Western unmannedaerial vehicle (UAV) developments and keep pace by copying or purchasing foreign technology. But when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a modernization program in the late 1990s to prepare for possible conflict over Taiwan, development of unmanned systems were a high priority. The result has been phenomenal growth in the UAV sector, which engages aircraft, helicopter, cruise missile and model aircraft companies, private concerns and university research centers.

Too Little, Too Late: AirSea Battle Concept May Lag China's Capabilities
Defense Technology International
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on June 1st, 2011
It is no secret that long-term U.S. Air Force and Navy planning is focused on China. This alone is straining U.S.-China relations, as well as triggering U.S. domestic criticism from those who regard war with China as inconceivable, and an internal squabble between China-focused planners and “bootcentric” Army and Marine leaders.

2011 China Defense White Paper: Points of Concern
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on April 11th, 2011
On 31 March 2011 the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) largely ceremonial Ministry of National Defense discharged one of its few serious duties by issuing its 7th defense white paper.  China’s defense white papers are not intended to describe the scope of its hard military capabilities or to detail future plans; such information is to be denied to potential adversaries.   Providing such a measure is one of the goals of the United States Department of Defense’s annual People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Military Power Reports, which is why they are harshly criticized by Beijing.  But in recent years, looking beyond their usual political boilerplate, China’s defense white papers gradually have increased their descriptions of larger Chinese national security goals and strategy while providing insights into structure and missions. The 2011 white paper continues this trend by revealing new developments in strategy and structure, but also gives insights into the PRC’s integration of foreign and national security policy.  This white paper is also disturbing for several reasons. It is a direct contribution to the PRC’s political warfare against Taiwan; it makes clear that PRC global military activism will be increasing; it justifies PRC aid to rogue regimes like North Korea and Iran; and, it defends the PLA’s nuclear missile buildup, while opposing missile defenses that would defend against North Korean and Iranian nuclear missiles. 

Relaxing The Tiananmen Arms Embargos: Still A Bad Idea
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 18th, 2010
The latest Presidential waiver on arms sales to the People's Republic of China represents a  new turn in the long string of attempts, usually by Presidents, to relax laws that imposed an embargo on arms sales to China following the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre.

China’s Aviation Sector: Building Toward World Class Capabilities
Testimony for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on China’s Emergent Military Aerospace and Commercial Aviation Capabilities
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on May 20th, 2010
Since the beginning of the latest phase of China’s military modernization following the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has striven to build a world class aerospace sector as a major element of increasing China’s comprehensive national power.  This goal has been pursued through enormous targeted investments in technology, design expertise, materials, and education, with successive sectoral reorganizations.  A broad acquisition of foreign technology has used to accelerate modernization and has been critical in all areas of success.  Having set a goal to become militarily dominant in the realms of air and space, this decade will see the emergence of a modern Chinese 4th to 5th generation air force, their first large cargo transport aircraft, and potentially, their first commercially viable transport aircraft.  However, reaching this point has also been hugely difficult for China and especially for its aero engine sector where results are just beginning to be realized. Assuming continued heavy government support and success, by the 2020s these capabilities could form a core military and commercial air power projection capability for China.  Absent appropriate U.S. government and commercial investments, by the 2020s the U.S. military and commercial aerospace sector will find itself in an increasingly heated competition with China, which will have significant security implications for the United States. 

The Air Balance on the Taiwan Strait
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on February 21st, 2010
The advent of a PLA 5th generation fighter is but one element of a larger Chinese military buildup which is now challenging the viability of Washington’s policy of calibrated arms sales to Taiwan.  Since coming to power in 2008 Taiwanese President Ma Ying jeou and other Taiwanese leaders have called on China to remove threatening missile more than ten times, to which China has responded by accelerating its military buildup.  A calibrated approach, such as continuing to sell Taipei even more advanced aircraft, like the 5th generation Lockheed-Martin F-35, may not be enough to sustain deterrence.  Future PLA space warfare capabilities, a growing nuclear arsenal, anti-ship ballistic missiles, increasing numbers of advanced submarines and a growing amphibious invasion capability pose a far greater threat to Taiwan and to the future ability of U.S. forces to provide a sufficient additional deterrent.   It may be overdue that Washington expands its definition of a “defensive” weapon for Taiwan as it increases investments  in new U.S. military capabilities that sustain Washington’s larger capacity to deter Chinese aggression.

Chinese Chengdu J-10 Emerges
Aviation Week
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 14th, 2010
Wrapped in secrecy for most of the decade following its 1998 test flight, Chengdu Aircraft Corp.’s J-10 multirole fighter is set to enter the global market. Following a development history that extends to the 1960s, and five years in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), the J-10 may emerge in the market soon after 2010, offering capabilities approaching Lockheed Martin’s F-16C Block 60, at half the price.