Articles

Taiwan in the Lurch
Wall Street Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on August 19th, 2011
According to a report in Defense News, the Obama administration quietly informed Taiwanese officials last week that Washington won't supply Taipei with new fighter jets. Since 2006, Taipei has asked to buy 66 new F-16 C/D fighters, but it will only get an upgrade of its older F-16s with better radar.  This may have taken one contentious issue off the table for U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's trip to China this week. But that harmony comes at the cost of weakening America's longstanding commitment to Taiwan's autonomy.

China’s Space Plane Program
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 27th, 2011
On July 21, 2011 at 5:57am the United States Space Shuttle Atlantis touched down ending the final mission of 30 years of Shuttle operations.  Praised as the most complex flying machine yet made by man and as the most famous example of American technological prowess, the Shuttle has also been criticized by many as an expensive Cadillac that failed to perform as advertised and shackled the U.S. to Low Earth Orbit.  But it is a fact that U.S. has no plans to build a similarly sized reusable launch vehicle (RLV).  China, however, in a series of  conference presentations made by engineers from the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), have outlined a program of research that could lead to one or two early RLV concepts under consideration. The first could be similar in size in the U.S. Space Shuttle, but with less than a third of its cargo capacity.  The other RLV proposal would not leave the atmosphere but would carry a second rocket stage that would put a small payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO).  While these papers provide useful insights, China’s RLV program is not nearly as transparent as the U.S. Space Shuttle program and the current status of China’s RLV program is not known. However, scant data suggests that RLV research is well under way and that a smaller space plane called the Shenlong has been used to validate many space plane technologies. Scant data also suggests that pending a decision to proceed, China’s goal is to launch its RLV by about 2020, around the same time it plans to loft its 60 ton Space Station.  It is not known whether China is meeting success in developing the requisite space plane technology, but in China’s official media the space plane gets little attention compared to the Space Station. China’s space plane program is also at the cutting edge of what appears to be a more ambitions military hypersonic vehicle program. 

Sky Stalkers: Chinese military commits to broad UAV development
Defense Technology International
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 1st, 2011
China was until the late 1990s content to follow Western unmannedaerial vehicle (UAV) developments and keep pace by copying or purchasing foreign technology. But when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a modernization program in the late 1990s to prepare for possible conflict over Taiwan, development of unmanned systems were a high priority. The result has been phenomenal growth in the UAV sector, which engages aircraft, helicopter, cruise missile and model aircraft companies, private concerns and university research centers.

PLA and U.S. Arms Racing in the Western Pacific
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on June 29th, 2011
On 18 May 2011, during his recent visit to Washington, D.C., General Chen Bingde, current Chief of the General Staff Department of the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), complained that China’s growing economic and military strength had, "unfortunately aroused unfounded suspicion and exaggeration of China's defense and military development.”  General Chen further noted that this, "not only distorts China's strategic intention, and tarnishes our international image, but also pollutes the political environment for Sino-U.S. relations." Chen further stated, “I can tell you that China does not have the capability to challenge the US…To be honest, I feel very sad after visiting (the US), because I think, I feel and I know, how poor our equipment is and how underdeveloped we remain.” Regarding Taiwan he stated, “efforts to enhance our military capabilities is [sic] mainly targeted at separatist forces… We would use peaceful means to resolve the Taiwan question and achieve reunification.”  These are well-worn Chinese deception and disinformation themes.  Far more than most, General Chen Bingde would want Americans to be misinformed about PLA capabilities and Chinese intentions, as for over 15 years General Chen has been centrally involved in PLA’s side of what is now an arms race in Asia to determine who controls the future of Taiwan and who will dominate power relations in Asia.

Too Little, Too Late: AirSea Battle Concept May Lag China's Capabilities
Defense Technology International
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on June 1st, 2011
It is no secret that long-term U.S. Air Force and Navy planning is focused on China. This alone is straining U.S.-China relations, as well as triggering U.S. domestic criticism from those who regard war with China as inconceivable, and an internal squabble between China-focused planners and “bootcentric” Army and Marine leaders.

2011 China Defense White Paper: Points of Concern
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on April 11th, 2011
On 31 March 2011 the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) largely ceremonial Ministry of National Defense discharged one of its few serious duties by issuing its 7th defense white paper.  China’s defense white papers are not intended to describe the scope of its hard military capabilities or to detail future plans; such information is to be denied to potential adversaries.   Providing such a measure is one of the goals of the United States Department of Defense’s annual People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Military Power Reports, which is why they are harshly criticized by Beijing.  But in recent years, looking beyond their usual political boilerplate, China’s defense white papers gradually have increased their descriptions of larger Chinese national security goals and strategy while providing insights into structure and missions. The 2011 white paper continues this trend by revealing new developments in strategy and structure, but also gives insights into the PRC’s integration of foreign and national security policy.  This white paper is also disturbing for several reasons. It is a direct contribution to the PRC’s political warfare against Taiwan; it makes clear that PRC global military activism will be increasing; it justifies PRC aid to rogue regimes like North Korea and Iran; and, it defends the PLA’s nuclear missile buildup, while opposing missile defenses that would defend against North Korean and Iranian nuclear missiles. 

Harvard for Tyrants
Foreign Policy
by Douglas Farah

Published on March 4th, 2011
Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi is well known now for the abuses he has inflicted on his own people during more than four decades of brutal rule in Libya, but few remember the vast campaign of carnage and terrorism he orchestrated across West Africa and Europe when he was at the height of his powers.  Nor are his more recent alliance with Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and his long-standing relationship with Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua -- both of whom are busy trampling their constitutions and moving toward dictatorship -- well understood. The ties that bind Qaddafi to some of the world's most repressive regimes and armed movements began in the 1980s, when he was regarded as one of the premier terrorist threats in the world. Flush with oil money, Qaddafi orchestrated a training campaign for those who became the most brutal warlords in much of Africa, a legacy that has left the region crippled and unstable today.

The story that should have been
Taipei Times
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 10th, 2011
Internet-sourced reports stated that the US had sold Taiwan the 300km-range Lockheed-Martin MGM-168 Advanced Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), the US Army’s principal heavy short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). If true, such a decision would have marked a very significant expansion of the US State Department’s quite restrictive definition of the phrase “defensive weapons” in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which has limited the capabilities of US arms sold to Taiwan even as China’s military threats grow unabated. However, it was not to be, as multiple Taiwanese government sources, relayed that there had been no such sale of ATACMS.

China Has Plans For Five Carriers
Aviation Week
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 5th, 2011
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is assembling the production and basing capacity to make its aircraft carrier program one of Asia’s largest military endeavors. A plausible near-term projection for China’s aircraft carrier ambitions was revealed in two 2009 articles in Japan’s Asahi Shimbun newspaper, which featured rare access to Chinese military and shipbuilding sources. The sources noted that China would first build two non-nuclear medium-sized carriers similar to the 50,000-ton ex-Soviet/Ukrainian Project 1143.5 carrier Varyag being rebuilt in Dalian Harbor. These carriers would start initial construction in 2009. Beginning in 2020 or soon after, two 60,000-plus-ton nuclear-powered carriers would follow, based on plans for the Soviet-designed but never built Project 1143.7 Ulyanovsk class.

Relaxing The Tiananmen Arms Embargos: Still A Bad Idea
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 18th, 2010
The latest Presidential waiver on arms sales to the People's Republic of China represents a  new turn in the long string of attempts, usually by Presidents, to relax laws that imposed an embargo on arms sales to China following the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre.