Papers & Studies

Air Sea Battle (China + Allies) Threat Projections:Thinking In and Outside the Box
For the National Defense University Program: Strategies for Defeating Anti-Access/Area Denial Capabilities,
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on November 15th, 2011
IASC Fellow Richard Fisher provides a briefing that examines key “hardware” trends for air-sea battles in East Asia. Importantly, the review of China’s threat potential considers the capabilities China could bring to bear over the next two to three decades, both inside the East Asian “box” and well outside that box.

Islamist Cyber Networks in Spanish-Speaking Latin America
Published by the Western Hemisphere Security Analysis Center of Florida International University, Miami, Florida
by Douglas Farah

Published on September 1st, 2011
Despite significant concern among policy, law enforcement and intelligence communities in the United States (U.S.) over the possible spread of radical Islamist thought throughout the world as part of a global jihad movement, there has been little investigation into the growing cyber networks in Latin America that promote strong anti-Semitic and anti-U.S. messages. This paper offers an overview of that network, focusing on the structure of Shi’ite websites that promote not only religious conversion but are also supportive of Iran—a designated State-sponsor of terrorism--,its nuclear program, Hezbollah and the ―Bolivarian revolution‖ led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. There is also a smaller group of Sunni Muslim websites, mostly tied to the legacy organizations of the Muslim Brotherhood.

China’s Space Plane Program
Briefing: USAF-HQ Strategic Studies Group
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on August 24th, 2011
China is aggressively persuing a reusable launch vehicle (RLV) program of research that could lead to one or two early RLV concepts under consideration. The first could be similar in size in the U.S. Space Shuttle, but with less than a third of its cargo capacity. The other RLV proposal would not leave the atmosphere but would carry a second rocket stage that would put a small payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO). China’s RLV program, however, is not nearly as transparent as the U.S. Space Shuttle program and the current status of China’s RLV program is not known. Data suggests that RLV research is well under way and that a smaller space plane called the Shenlong has been used to validate many space plane technologies. Scant data also suggests that pending a decision to proceed, China’s goal is to launch its RLV by about 2020, around the same time it plans to loft its 60 ton Space Station. It is not known whether China is meeting success in developing the requisite space plane technology, but in China’s official media the space plane gets little attention compared to the Space Station. China’s space plane program is also at the cutting edge of what appears to be a more ambitions military hypersonic vehicle program.

Money Laundering and Bulk Cash Smuggling: Challenges for the Mérida Initiative
Working Paper Series on U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation
by Douglas Farah

Published on November 30th, 2010
It is widely accepted that cutting off the flow of money from the sale of cocaine in the United States to the Mexican drug trafficking organizations is one of the most efficient ways to decrease the power of the cartels. Without the cash influx there would be less money for corruption and the purchase of weapons, and cash seizures directly take away what the drug traffickers want most -- profits from their illicit activities. On both sides of the border the smuggling of bulk cash and money laundering tied to the billions of dollars in profits is not just viewed as a problem for Mexico, but as a significant security threat to the United States.

Winds From the East: How the People’s Republic of China Seeks to Influence the Media in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia
A Report to the Center for International Media Assistance
by Douglas Farah, Andy Mosher

Published on September 8th, 2010
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is using various components of public diplomacy to influence the media in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. China’s primary purposes appear to be to present China as a reliable friend and partner, as well as to make sure that China’s image in the developing world is positive. As part of its efforts to do this, the Chinese government seeks to fundamentally reshape much of the world’s media in its own image, away from a watchdog stance toward the government to one where the government’s interests are the paramount concern in deciding what to disseminate.

Update: China’s Aircraft Carriers
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 10th, 2009
China’s decision in mid-December 2008 to dispatch a small People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) task force of two destroyers to police against Somalia’s pirates has been greeted as a hopeful sign that China may use its growing naval capabilities positively; one Chinese commentator said it “shows the world that China is a large responsible nation.”  Nevertheless, China struck a nationalist tone to its participation, refusing to join the American-led multinational naval Task Force 151, though engaging in an uneven information exchange with the U.S. side.  A less benign demonstration was a far less noted December 9, 2008 incident in the East China Sea, in which two Chinese Marine Surveillance Agency ships apparently made use of the PLA’s increasingly capable space and electronic information capabilities, to calculate the precise moment when Japanese Coast Guard ships would not be present to thwart China’s latest effort to assert its sovereignty over the disputed Senkaku Islands. 

Decentralization Reforms in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: Slowly and Unsteadily
by Marianna Gurtovnik

Published on July 24th, 2006
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the presidents of independent Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have publicly recognized devolution of authority to locally elected officials as an important step toward more responsive and transparent governments.However, both leaders have failed to match their words with action.

River at Risk: The Mekong and the Water Politics of China and Southeast Asia
Lowy Institute Paper 02
by Milton Osborne

Published on October 1st, 2004
By the middle of March 2004 there was growing concern in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia about the level of the Mekong River. Poor rains in the wet season of 2003 and a subsequent protracted dry period appeared to be largely to blame for the sharply lower level of water in the Mekong by comparison with ‘normal’ years. But the unusually dry season may not have been the only factor at work. Officials in Thailand have claimed that Chinese authorities have endeavored to limit the flow of water out of the dams already built on the Mekong in China’s Yunnan province, as they undertake new dam construction and continue work to clear the river of obstacles to navigation. At the same time, Thai officials suggest that unusual volatility in the river’s flow reflects the manner in which China has been closing its dam gates. Gates are closed for three days, before opening them for one day to allow Chinese cargo vessels to travel to and from river ports in the southern Yunnan province and northern Thailand.

The Impact of Foreign Weapons and Technology on the Modernization of China's People's Liberation Army
Report for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 1st, 2004
In January 2004 IASC Vice President Richard Fisher submitted a detailed review and analysis of how, over the last 20 years, China has used access to foreign weapons to fuel its accelerating military modernization.Over 200 pages in length, this report assesses the scale of Chinese weapons purchases, their main suppliers, their impact on the security of the United States and Taiwan, and also presents detailed assessments of individual weapons sold to China.

PLAAF Equipment Trends
National Defense University Conference, “PLA and Chinese Society in Transition”
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 30th, 2001
Despite its never having done so before in a large fashion, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is pursuing an overall modernization program to enable the conduct all-weather offensive and defensive operations in a modern high-technology environment. This is consistent with the general doctrinal goal to build a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) capable of waging “Local War Under High Tech Conditions.”Expansion of all-weather offensive capabilities is a relatively recent and ominous trend in the PLAAF.Apparently, this could include offensive naval strike missions for the PLAAF and greater consideration of using Airborne Forces in a strategic strike capacity.