Publications

Sustaining Deterrence on the Taiwan Strait^[1]
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 21st, 2010
While seasoned observers are identifying what may be a second “freeze” on arms sales to Taiwan, the 66 F-16C fighters the Obama Administration has not yet approved for sale to Taiwan may only constitute the very beginning of a new phase of arms sales that will be required to sustain deterrence on the Taiwan Strait through this decade.  While Taiwan, especially under the “flexible diplomacy” of President Ma Ying Jeou has sought to expand economic and political relations with China, there should be no doubt that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains committed to achieving “unification” under their terms, a condition will continue until the CCP is removed from power in China. Until such a turn of history Taiwan’s survival as a democracy will depend on economic and political engagement with China that minimizes risks and the maintenance of a military capability that deters the CCP leadership from considering that it can secure military victory. 

China Builds Up Amphibious Forces
Aviation Week
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on May 20th, 2010
There has been significant soul-searching over the past year in the U.S. Defense Department about the viability of the Marine Corps’ amphibious assault mission, tied to the controversy over the troubled General Dynamics Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) program. No such doubts about amphibious operations exist in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Since the early 1990s, the PLA has developed and deployed two generations of amphibious armored assault vehicles, and more recently developed a range of specialized amphibious assault and support systems. While this effort is largely focused on preparing for a possible invasion of Taiwan, it will also help the PLA undertake long-distance amphibious assault operations as the PLA Navy (PLAN) builds a number of large amphibious transport ships later this decade.

China’s Aviation Sector: Building Toward World Class Capabilities
Testimony for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on China’s Emergent Military Aerospace and Commercial Aviation Capabilities
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on May 20th, 2010
Since the beginning of the latest phase of China’s military modernization following the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has striven to build a world class aerospace sector as a major element of increasing China’s comprehensive national power.  This goal has been pursued through enormous targeted investments in technology, design expertise, materials, and education, with successive sectoral reorganizations.  A broad acquisition of foreign technology has used to accelerate modernization and has been critical in all areas of success.  Having set a goal to become militarily dominant in the realms of air and space, this decade will see the emergence of a modern Chinese 4th to 5th generation air force, their first large cargo transport aircraft, and potentially, their first commercially viable transport aircraft.  However, reaching this point has also been hugely difficult for China and especially for its aero engine sector where results are just beginning to be realized. Assuming continued heavy government support and success, by the 2020s these capabilities could form a core military and commercial air power projection capability for China.  Absent appropriate U.S. government and commercial investments, by the 2020s the U.S. military and commercial aerospace sector will find itself in an increasingly heated competition with China, which will have significant security implications for the United States. 

The Air Balance on the Taiwan Strait
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on February 21st, 2010
The advent of a PLA 5th generation fighter is but one element of a larger Chinese military buildup which is now challenging the viability of Washington’s policy of calibrated arms sales to Taiwan.  Since coming to power in 2008 Taiwanese President Ma Ying jeou and other Taiwanese leaders have called on China to remove threatening missile more than ten times, to which China has responded by accelerating its military buildup.  A calibrated approach, such as continuing to sell Taipei even more advanced aircraft, like the 5th generation Lockheed-Martin F-35, may not be enough to sustain deterrence.  Future PLA space warfare capabilities, a growing nuclear arsenal, anti-ship ballistic missiles, increasing numbers of advanced submarines and a growing amphibious invasion capability pose a far greater threat to Taiwan and to the future ability of U.S. forces to provide a sufficient additional deterrent.   It may be overdue that Washington expands its definition of a “defensive” weapon for Taiwan as it increases investments  in new U.S. military capabilities that sustain Washington’s larger capacity to deter Chinese aggression.

U.S. Identifies Russian ‘Nexus’ of Organized Crime
Main Justice
by Glenn R. Simpson

Published on February 10th, 2010
After two years of research, the U.S. intelligence community has formally concluded that the governments of Russia and other Eurasian states actively collaborate with organized crime groups. The finding was made public in a little-noticed section of an annual survey of national security threats released on Feb. 2 by Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair. There is an “apparent growing nexus in Russian and Eurasian states among government, organized crime, intelligence services, and big business figures,” said the report, unveiled at a hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. The language fingering Russia is an unusually direct identification by the U.S. of what analysts view as a growing menace to U.S. national security.

Ecuador at Risk: Drugs, Thugs, Guerrillas and the Citizens Revolution
by Douglas Farah, Glenn R. Simpson

Published on January 24th, 2010
New Spanish language translation available.  The changing internal situation in Colombia and the expanding influence of the Mexican drug cartels have, over the past three years, helped turn Ecuador into an important and growing center of operation for transnational organized criminal gangs. This poses a significant threat not only to the Ecuadoran state but all of Latin America and the United States.

China's Scary Space Ambitions
The Wall Street Journal Asia
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 20th, 2010
China's Jan. 11 test of exoatmospheric missile interception is worth paying attention to—especially in Washington. It isn't just an early step toward development of a missile-defense system; it's also a signal of a radical change in the country's stance on the militarization of space. The United States should take this as a wake-up call that in the long term, China intends to challenge its strategic superiority in aerospace.

Chinese Chengdu J-10 Emerges
Aviation Week
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 14th, 2010
Wrapped in secrecy for most of the decade following its 1998 test flight, Chengdu Aircraft Corp.’s J-10 multirole fighter is set to enter the global market. Following a development history that extends to the 1960s, and five years in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), the J-10 may emerge in the market soon after 2010, offering capabilities approaching Lockheed Martin’s F-16C Block 60, at half the price.

October Surprises In Chinese Aerospace
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on December 30th, 2009
Until recently one of Chinese officialdom’s most avoided issues of public and international interest regarding their People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been this: its future plans.  However, this 60th Anniversary year for the PLA has witnessed a marked increase in “transparency” in PLA terms, meaning it has been uneven and not the outcome of any regular process.  Nevertheless, this year has seen the leaders of the PLA Navy (PLAN) and PLA Air Force (PLAAF) address issues of mission, strategy and force modernization, with much more coming from the PLAAF.  Earlier this year rare PLA press leaks revealed an intention to build a sizable aircraft carrier navy.  In October and November the PLA explained China’s intention to build an “integrated air and space force capable of offensive and defensive actions.”

Who is the Imam Consulted by the Ft. Hood Assassin?
A Look at the Terrorist Ties of Anwar al-Aulaqi and the Radicalization Process
by Susan Schmidt

Published on November 9th, 2009
Anwar al-Aulaqi, the former imam of mosques in Falls Church and San Diego who was a spiritual advisor to two of the 9/11 hijackers is suspected of involvement in terrorist plots directed at the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and other parts of the world, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials. Aulaqi, a U.S. citizen who was imam at Virginia’s Dar al Hijrah on 9/11, moved to Yemen a few months after the attacks. Audiotapes and transcripts of his lectures on waging jihad against the West have been discovered in the password protected computer files of numerous suspects arrested in bombing plots in Europe and North America. He pronounced suspected Fort Hood slayer Nidal Hasan "a hero" and "a man of conscience" in an internet blog posting Monday.