Publications

The U.S.‐Caribbean Shared Security Partnership: Responding to the Growth of Trafficking and Narcotics in the Caribbean
Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
by Douglas Farah

Published on December 15th, 2011
Drug trafficking routes and networks are like water running downhill, they will always seek the path of least resistance. And, like a balloon, when pressure is applied in one area the displaced operations pop up in another. The $139 million, two-year Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBSI), in anticipation of the pressure being applied in Mexico and Colombia, is aimed at making it simultaneously more difficult to traffic cocaine and other illicit drugs through the Caribbean. But there are several significant roadblocks for the CBSI achieving its goals, in addition to the traditional issues of corruption, weak institutions, lack of rule of law, and lack of resources to fight traffickers who are well-resourced. and have multiple unguarded points of entry across the region. They cannot be addressed outside of the broader regional context of Latin America. The two most significant roadblocks are: the growing political and economic influence of Venezuela in the region; and the continuing existence of large offshore financial centers offering multiple services to a broad array of transnational criminal organizations.

Air Sea Battle (China + Allies) Threat Projections:Thinking In and Outside the Box
For the National Defense University Program: Strategies for Defeating Anti-Access/Area Denial Capabilities,
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on November 15th, 2011
IASC Fellow Richard Fisher provides a briefing that examines key “hardware” trends for air-sea battles in East Asia. Importantly, the review of China’s threat potential considers the capabilities China could bring to bear over the next two to three decades, both inside the East Asian “box” and well outside that box.

Military Space Ambitions of the People’s Republic of China and How Near Term PRC-U.S. Cooperation with China In Outer Space Could Threaten U.S. Interests
Testimony before United States House of Representatives, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on November 2nd, 2011
It is highly questionable whether the United States and the PRC can find a basis for cooperation in space that would then cause a fundamentally positive change to their relations here on Earth. As with the former Soviet Union, any real change in PRC relations with the U.S. will depend far more on a transformation away from the current Communist Party dictatorship and its military guarantors toward an open, accountable democratic system.  The PRC Party-Military amalgam depends on domestic repression and recurrent reference to so-called external threats to remain in power. In fact, we see each of these escalating dangerously of late, leading to notable expressions of concern from its neighbors, this Congress and indeed this Administration. In such a context there is little NASA can do to effect positive change -- whilst conversely, it could do a great deal of harm to U.S. interests if it were to continue to enable the PRC to extract one-sided advantage from U.S. science and space technologies.

Asymmetric Options for the Defense of Taiwan: U.S. Missile Technology
Briefing for IASC Congressional Forum: Is Taiwan Defendable?
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 26th, 2011
Over the medium to long run the democratic government in Taiwan will not be able to purchase or afford the weapons necessary to deter military attack or coercion by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), forcing political concessions that could lead to an end to Taiwan’s democratic era.  At the same time, the United States will find itself increasingly constrained in ability to deter Chinese attack or coercion, both by its reductions in military growth compared to that of the PLA, and its unwillingness to risk conflict with the PRC over the sale of larger and more weapons to Taiwan. Following Taiwan’s decision over a decade ago to seek new “asymmetric” deterrent means, like new precision attack missiles, the U.S. appears to be warming to the idea of assisting Taiwan in pursuing “asymmetric” capabilities.  Though this “reappraisal” has not been fully explained, there may be an opportunity to shape its content. 

China’s Maturing Fighter Force
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 15th, 2011
Following an intensive twenty year investment, which has included obtaining significant foreign help, the air forces of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have reached a number of milestones that point to the likelihood of an accelerating growth in capability through this decade.  Perhaps one of the most jarring indicators of this rapid maturation is that within five years of the reported retiring of its last 2nd generation fighter unit of Shenyang J-6s in 2005, the PLA started testing prototypes of its 5th generation Chengdu “J-20” in 2010.  Furthermore, less than a decade following the 2004 service entry of the “indigenous” 4th generation Chengdu J-10 fighter, a new 4+ generation variant called the “J-10B” is expected to enter production in late 2011 or 2012.  It has taken the PLA roughly 20 years to leap from production of third generation fighters to testing of its 5th generation fighter, whereas this process took 30 years for the United States.

Questions Regarding China’s Future Strategic Nuclear Capabilities
Testimony before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 14th, 2011
One of the most vexing challenges to the security of the United States is how to assess the future strategic nuclear capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and how to plan for U.S. strategic capabilities that will ensure deterrence of PRC nuclear aggression and coercion against the United States, its allies and its friends.  Even considering the current dire budgetary environment, this is one challenge that allows for no margin of error in the American response. After two decades of massive military investments the PRC leadership may be entering a phase where its assessment of an American relative decline could embolden new levels of aggression, perhaps against Taiwan, against the U.S. strategic position in Asia, or in support of its gathering network of client dictatorships – or all three of these.

Narcoterrorism And the Long Reach of U.S. Law Enforcement
Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade
by Douglas Farah

Published on October 12th, 2011
Over the past month Central American counter-narcotics intelligence forces began unraveling a massive money movement operation that included – for the first time in their experience – a mixing of funds from Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs); Chinese Triads; Russian transnational criminal organizations and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia—FARC), a designated terrorist entity and cocaine exporter.

The International Exploitation of Drug Wars and What We Can Do About It
Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations
by Douglas Farah

Published on October 12th, 2011
When the Colombian National Police and military attacked a stationary FARC camp in Ecuador on March 1, 2008, killing Raúl Reyes, a top guerrilla commander, and capturing several hundred gigabytes of data, one thing became amply clear: the designated terrorist organization that produces some 70 percent of the cocaine consumed in the United States had multiple active cells inside Mexico, particularly in the national university. Just before the bombing a delegation of Mexican university students arrived at the FARC and offered a more formal alliance with Mexico’s small Marxist-Leninist party, the National Liberation Movement (Movimiento de Liberación Nacional).

Mongolia Moves Toward Europe and Implications for the OSCE
Testimony for The U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (U.S. Helsinki Commission)
by John Tkacik

Published on October 12th, 2011
On the question of Mongolia's application for status as a participating state in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Mongolia has become even more important geopolitically – in every way – to America’s and Europe’s security.  The imperative of giving Mongolia status as a participating OSCE state lies in its geopolitical importance in Eurasia, specifically as a moderating influence in relations between Russia and China.Mongolians themselves are acutely sensitive to their role as a buffer between Eurasia’s two most massive powers. They understand the absolute necessity of not allowing their land to become a satellite of either great power lest the other great power seek to rebalance in the opposite direction. Mongolians descriptively call their strategy the “Third Neighbor Policy.”

Looking Forward: Call for war in the South China Sea

Published on September 30th, 2011
A few weeks ago I wrote about the scare I had when the Chinese navy intercepted an Indian vessel leaving Vietnam on the high seas, claiming it was violating Chinese territorial waters. Now we all have much more cause for concern. An important article calling for war with Vietnam and the Philippines was published 27 September in the Global Times, a tabloid format Party newspaper owned by the highest official Chinese government mouthpiece, the People’s Daily. It remained the lead story at the newspaper’s website for almost two days and is still posted as I write (29 September). Yet the Washington Times appears to be the only Western newspaper to have picked it up.