Publications

Transnational Criminal Threats in El Salvador: New Trends and Lessons From Colombia
Published by the Western Hemisphere Security Analysis Center of Florida International University, Miami, Florida
by Douglas Farah

Published on September 7th, 2011
Since El Salvador’s civil war formally ended in 1992 the small Central American nation has undergone profound social changes and significant reforms. However, few changes have been as important or as devastating as the nation’s emergence as a central hub in the transnational criminal “pipeline” or series of recombinant, overlapping chains of routes and actors that illicit organizations use to traffic in drugs, money, weapons, human being, endangered animals and other products.

Looking Forward: Illusions About China Come Home To Roost
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on September 5th, 2011
The news that the Chinese had confronted an Indian naval vessel on the high seas as it left Vietnam shook and alarmed me more than any other incident has in the four decades since I started study of Chinese. China would appear suddenly to be in a hurry to become the dominant power in Asia. She has laid claim as territorial waters to the whole of what in Chinese is called “nanhai” the “South Sea” and in English the “South China Sea”—some 648,000 square miles. Now she seems to have set her course to enforce this—despite the fact that the claim has no historical merit, violates established international law, and puts China at odds with nearly all of her neighbors.

Islamist Cyber Networks in Spanish-Speaking Latin America
Published by the Western Hemisphere Security Analysis Center of Florida International University, Miami, Florida
by Douglas Farah

Published on September 1st, 2011
Despite significant concern among policy, law enforcement and intelligence communities in the United States (U.S.) over the possible spread of radical Islamist thought throughout the world as part of a global jihad movement, there has been little investigation into the growing cyber networks in Latin America that promote strong anti-Semitic and anti-U.S. messages. This paper offers an overview of that network, focusing on the structure of Shi’ite websites that promote not only religious conversion but are also supportive of Iran—a designated State-sponsor of terrorism--,its nuclear program, Hezbollah and the ―Bolivarian revolution‖ led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. There is also a smaller group of Sunni Muslim websites, mostly tied to the legacy organizations of the Muslim Brotherhood.

China’s Space Plane Program
Briefing: USAF-HQ Strategic Studies Group
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on August 24th, 2011
China is aggressively persuing a reusable launch vehicle (RLV) program of research that could lead to one or two early RLV concepts under consideration. The first could be similar in size in the U.S. Space Shuttle, but with less than a third of its cargo capacity. The other RLV proposal would not leave the atmosphere but would carry a second rocket stage that would put a small payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO). China’s RLV program, however, is not nearly as transparent as the U.S. Space Shuttle program and the current status of China’s RLV program is not known. Data suggests that RLV research is well under way and that a smaller space plane called the Shenlong has been used to validate many space plane technologies. Scant data also suggests that pending a decision to proceed, China’s goal is to launch its RLV by about 2020, around the same time it plans to loft its 60 ton Space Station. It is not known whether China is meeting success in developing the requisite space plane technology, but in China’s official media the space plane gets little attention compared to the Space Station. China’s space plane program is also at the cutting edge of what appears to be a more ambitions military hypersonic vehicle program.

Taiwan in the Lurch
Wall Street Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on August 19th, 2011
According to a report in Defense News, the Obama administration quietly informed Taiwanese officials last week that Washington won't supply Taipei with new fighter jets. Since 2006, Taipei has asked to buy 66 new F-16 C/D fighters, but it will only get an upgrade of its older F-16s with better radar.  This may have taken one contentious issue off the table for U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's trip to China this week. But that harmony comes at the cost of weakening America's longstanding commitment to Taiwan's autonomy.

China’s Space Plane Program
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 27th, 2011
On July 21, 2011 at 5:57am the United States Space Shuttle Atlantis touched down ending the final mission of 30 years of Shuttle operations.  Praised as the most complex flying machine yet made by man and as the most famous example of American technological prowess, the Shuttle has also been criticized by many as an expensive Cadillac that failed to perform as advertised and shackled the U.S. to Low Earth Orbit.  But it is a fact that U.S. has no plans to build a similarly sized reusable launch vehicle (RLV).  China, however, in a series of  conference presentations made by engineers from the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), have outlined a program of research that could lead to one or two early RLV concepts under consideration. The first could be similar in size in the U.S. Space Shuttle, but with less than a third of its cargo capacity.  The other RLV proposal would not leave the atmosphere but would carry a second rocket stage that would put a small payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO).  While these papers provide useful insights, China’s RLV program is not nearly as transparent as the U.S. Space Shuttle program and the current status of China’s RLV program is not known. However, scant data suggests that RLV research is well under way and that a smaller space plane called the Shenlong has been used to validate many space plane technologies. Scant data also suggests that pending a decision to proceed, China’s goal is to launch its RLV by about 2020, around the same time it plans to loft its 60 ton Space Station.  It is not known whether China is meeting success in developing the requisite space plane technology, but in China’s official media the space plane gets little attention compared to the Space Station. China’s space plane program is also at the cutting edge of what appears to be a more ambitions military hypersonic vehicle program. 

The Enemy of Hegemony is My Friend: Pakistan’s de facto ‘Alliance’ with China
Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee
by John Tkacik

Published on July 26th, 2011
Since the successful elimination on May 1st of al Qaeda chieftain Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, and Pakistan’s official expressions of unhappiness with America’s perceived violations of Pakistan’s sovereignty, there has been considerable speculation in the news media that somehow China recently has begun to eclipse the United States as Pakistan’s most important ally. This is unfounded, unrealistic and betrays a lack of understanding of Pakistan’s strategic relationship with China.  China has always been Pakistan’s most important strategic ally, and the intensity of Pakistan’s relationship with the United States has always been a subset of Pakistan’s all-consuming strategic calculus about India.

Hezbollah in Latin America: Implications for U.S. Security
Testimony before the House Committee on Homeland Security
by Douglas Farah

Published on July 7th, 2011
Today the U.S. faces a significant and growing threat in the Western Hemisphere: the presence of Hezbollah and its primary sponsor, the government of Iran, with its full arsenal of intelligence and specialized military units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Qods Force. The threat is not limited to the region and the Homeland alone, but more broadly its aims include an ability to hold the U.S. at risk in terms of exercising options in other theatres, most specifically with respect to Iran, Syria and the Middle East, including Israel.

Sky Stalkers: Chinese military commits to broad UAV development
Defense Technology International
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 1st, 2011
China was until the late 1990s content to follow Western unmannedaerial vehicle (UAV) developments and keep pace by copying or purchasing foreign technology. But when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a modernization program in the late 1990s to prepare for possible conflict over Taiwan, development of unmanned systems were a high priority. The result has been phenomenal growth in the UAV sector, which engages aircraft, helicopter, cruise missile and model aircraft companies, private concerns and university research centers.

PLA and U.S. Arms Racing in the Western Pacific
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on June 29th, 2011
On 18 May 2011, during his recent visit to Washington, D.C., General Chen Bingde, current Chief of the General Staff Department of the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), complained that China’s growing economic and military strength had, "unfortunately aroused unfounded suspicion and exaggeration of China's defense and military development.”  General Chen further noted that this, "not only distorts China's strategic intention, and tarnishes our international image, but also pollutes the political environment for Sino-U.S. relations." Chen further stated, “I can tell you that China does not have the capability to challenge the US…To be honest, I feel very sad after visiting (the US), because I think, I feel and I know, how poor our equipment is and how underdeveloped we remain.” Regarding Taiwan he stated, “efforts to enhance our military capabilities is [sic] mainly targeted at separatist forces… We would use peaceful means to resolve the Taiwan question and achieve reunification.”  These are well-worn Chinese deception and disinformation themes.  Far more than most, General Chen Bingde would want Americans to be misinformed about PLA capabilities and Chinese intentions, as for over 15 years General Chen has been centrally involved in PLA’s side of what is now an arms race in Asia to determine who controls the future of Taiwan and who will dominate power relations in Asia.