Publications

Confronting the News: The State of Independent Media in Latin America
A Report to the Center for International Media Assistance
by Douglas Farah

Published on June 28th, 2011
Freedom of expression and of the press in much of Latin America are under sustained attack by numerous authoritarian governments in the region, as well as non-state armed actors such as drug trafficking organizations and paramilitary groups. These attacks have made Latin America one of the most dangerous places in the world in which to be a journalist. Overall, the region, with the exception of the Caribbean, has suffered an almost uninterrupted deterioration of press freedoms over the past five years, reaching its lowest point since the military dictatorships of the 1980s.

Why Taiwan Matters
Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs
by June Teufel Dreyer, Ph.D

Published on June 16th, 2011
The current state of U.S.-Taiwan relations leaves much to be desired.  A recent analysis describes the island’s narrowing options, tracing a trajectory toward absorption by China. Given a continuation of current trends, it is difficult to disagree with this conclusion.   It is my belief that U.S. actions bear a large measure of responsibility for this drift, and that for two major reasons—first, to ensure its national security and maintain regional peace; and second, to remain true to its own founding beliefs, the United States must make efforts to reverse this drift.

Message from Dr. K: Anything new from the old China hand?
The Weekly Standard
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on June 13th, 2011
Properly understood, this is not a book about what Henry Kissinger accomplished in the realm of U.S.-China relations, but rather a book about China herself: an attempt to answer the questions, what sort of civilization and country is China? And what sort of international behavior can we expect from China in the years ahead? Taken as such, it is, to be frank, disappointing.

Terrorist-Criminal Pipelines and Criminalized States: Emerging Alliances
Prism 2, No. 3
by Douglas Farah

Published on June 1st, 2011
On July 1, 2010, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York unsealed an indictment that outlined the rapid expansion of operations of transnational criminal organizations and their growing, often short-term strategic alliances with terrorist groups. These little-understood transcontinental alliances pose new security threats to the United States, as well as much of Latin America, West Africa, and Europe.

Too Little, Too Late: AirSea Battle Concept May Lag China's Capabilities
Defense Technology International
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on June 1st, 2011
It is no secret that long-term U.S. Air Force and Navy planning is focused on China. This alone is straining U.S.-China relations, as well as triggering U.S. domestic criticism from those who regard war with China as inconceivable, and an internal squabble between China-focused planners and “bootcentric” Army and Marine leaders.

Cyber Warfare Challenges and the Increasing Use of American and European Dual-Use Technology for Military Purposes by the People’s Republic of China (PRC)
Testimony for the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the United States House of Representatives
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on April 15th, 2011
Uunder the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and as part of its total effort to harness its own cyber realm as a weapon against its citizens, the People's Republic of China very likely has built the world’s most formidable cyber warfare capability. It is the most formidable in both the breadth of its actors, in its global reach and in the daily threat it poses to America’s strategic and economic security.  It  imposes a heavy financial burden on Americans. A 2009 industry estimate held that annual U.S. cyber security expenditures could reach $25 billion by 2013.  Current open source figures for cybersecurity range from $10-13 billion per year, slated to rise at 9% a year, or $1.2 billion -- with cumulative spending under this administration estimated to be $55 billion for the 2010-2015 period. It is broadly understood that this spending is primarily in reaction to the PRC's cyberespionage efforts.  One current estimate asserts that cyber espionage alone costs the United States $200 billion a year, with, again, the PRC being responsible for most of that burden. According to the April 11, 2011 testimony of U.S. Northern Command commander Admiral James Winnefeld, this amount surpasses the national cost war on drugs, estimated at $181 billion annually.  Clearly this challenge is growing.

Testimony on Cyber-attacks, Espionage, and Technology Transfers to the People’s Republic of China
Foreign Affairs Committee, United States House of Representatives
by Hon. Edward T. Timperlake

Published on April 15th, 2011
The PRC had an agenda to not only curry favor with agents of influence but also collect information and conduct espionage operations, a select Congressional committee was created. The extensive report issued by that committee covered significant aspects of US military and commercial dual-use technology that was targeted by PRC collectors. The PRC agent’s success in the 90s and continuing to this day is being seen in the continued rapid modernization of all military forces of the Peoples Liberation Army.  For brevity I have pulled out a few representative samples in this overview of the PLA’s current clear and present threat to America’s National Security.

2011 China Defense White Paper: Points of Concern
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on April 11th, 2011
On 31 March 2011 the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) largely ceremonial Ministry of National Defense discharged one of its few serious duties by issuing its 7th defense white paper.  China’s defense white papers are not intended to describe the scope of its hard military capabilities or to detail future plans; such information is to be denied to potential adversaries.   Providing such a measure is one of the goals of the United States Department of Defense’s annual People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Military Power Reports, which is why they are harshly criticized by Beijing.  But in recent years, looking beyond their usual political boilerplate, China’s defense white papers gradually have increased their descriptions of larger Chinese national security goals and strategy while providing insights into structure and missions. The 2011 white paper continues this trend by revealing new developments in strategy and structure, but also gives insights into the PRC’s integration of foreign and national security policy.  This white paper is also disturbing for several reasons. It is a direct contribution to the PRC’s political warfare against Taiwan; it makes clear that PRC global military activism will be increasing; it justifies PRC aid to rogue regimes like North Korea and Iran; and, it defends the PLA’s nuclear missile buildup, while opposing missile defenses that would defend against North Korean and Iranian nuclear missiles. 

Harvard for Tyrants
Foreign Policy
by Douglas Farah

Published on March 4th, 2011
Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi is well known now for the abuses he has inflicted on his own people during more than four decades of brutal rule in Libya, but few remember the vast campaign of carnage and terrorism he orchestrated across West Africa and Europe when he was at the height of his powers.  Nor are his more recent alliance with Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and his long-standing relationship with Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua -- both of whom are busy trampling their constitutions and moving toward dictatorship -- well understood. The ties that bind Qaddafi to some of the world's most repressive regimes and armed movements began in the 1980s, when he was regarded as one of the premier terrorist threats in the world. Flush with oil money, Qaddafi orchestrated a training campaign for those who became the most brutal warlords in much of Africa, a legacy that has left the region crippled and unstable today.

Organized Crime in El Salvador: The Homegrown and Transnational Dimensions
Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars
by Douglas Farah

Published on February 1st, 2011
When El Salvador's brutal civil war ended in a negotiated settlement in 1992 after 12 years and some 75,000 dead, it was widely hoped that the peace agreements would usher in a new era of democratic governance, rule of law, and economic growth. Yet today El Salvador is a crucial part of a transnational “pipeline” or series of overlapping, recombinant chains of actors and routes that transnational criminal organizations use to move illicit products, money, weapons, personnel, and goods. The results are devastating and wide-ranging in the Massachusetts-sized country, and are a key part of the crisis of governance and rule of law crippling the Central American region and Mexico.