Articles

Taiwan's Call to Arms
The Wall Street Journal Asia
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 19th, 2009
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense issued its Quadrennial Defense Review Monday, which attempts to explain strategy, justify to legislators required future military force levels and gather support for all-important defense budgets. In doing so, Taiwan's generals are attempting to square the circle of Taiwan's tortured defense debate against the backdrop of China's growing military threat.

Conflict Prevention and Confidence Building Measures between Japan and China
by Vice Admiral (Ret.) Fumio Ota Ph.D.

Published on January 5th, 2009
Chinese leaders always say to Japanese leaders that Japan should look at history as a mirror. It means that Japan should not forget her brutal actions against China during the Sino-Japanese conflict in the late 1930s and the beginning of the 1940s. However, since this period Japan and China have changed considerably. Today, the China is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party and the Japan is democracy.  While history should not be forgotten, we must also judge a country by its current actions. A recent survey of world public opinion from 2005 to 2007 found that Japan is the country most widely viewed as having a positive influence, which is helped by the fact that Japan  has never used military power as a means for settling international conflicts after 1945. Since the People's Republic of China was established in 1949, the frequency of its use of military forces reaches the double digits.  On average, China has used military power every several years. In all cases, except for its support of North Vietnam’s war against South Vietnam, China has used force preemptively. China attacked the opponent first after careful preparation, whereas the opponent suffered from a surprise attack.

Closer Look: Shenzhou-7’s Close Pass by the International Space Station
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 9th, 2008
On September 27, 2008 during its 31st orbit, China’s Shenzhou-7 space mission achieved two of its main objectives: China’s first manned extra vehicular activity (EVA) or space walk, and the first launch of the 40kg BX-1 microsatellite for the purposes of testing new microsatellite technologies, and observing and operating in cooperation with the Shenzhou.  The spacewalk by Chinese astronaut Zhai Zhigang received massive coverage in China and internationally and the microsatellite mission was also covered well by the Chinese media.  What the Chinese media did not cover, and even more surprisingly has so far gone unremarked by the United States or Russian governments, was the fact that about 4 hours after launching the BX-1, the Shenzhou-7 flew to a distance of about 45km (27 miles) from the International Space Station (ISS).

China’s Military Employment of American Dual-Use Technologies
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on August 1st, 2008
On June 5, 1989 President George H.W. Bush announced the United States suspension of sales of items on the U.S. munitions list, or an arms embargo, in response to the June 3-4 Tiananmen Massacre in Beijing, China. In 1990 this policy was codified by the U.S. Congress. But almost from its inception successive American presidents have made exceptions to this law, primarily by issuing wavers to allow the purchase of Chinese satellite launch services. In addition, by the mid-1990s the U.S. Commerce Department has allowed a growing trade in so-called "dual-use" items that may have a military use but are not weapons in and of themselves.

Chinese Arms Cost American Lives
Far Eastern Economic Review (July/August 2008)
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 1st, 2008
For over a year, U.S. officials have been complaining to their Chinese counterparts about the shipment of Chinese-made or Chinese coproduced weapons to Iraqi insurgents and to the Taliban in Afghanistan, largely via Iran. The requests to stop the flow of arms into the hands of insurgents who are killing U.S. and coalition troops has fallen on deaf ears. Far more than just the latest irritant in U.S.-China relations, Beijing’s arming of these insurgencies fits into the long-term trend dating back to the Korean and Vietnam Wars of using proxy conflicts to bleed the American superpower.

China's Naval Secrets
Asian Wall Street Journal
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on May 5th, 2008
Experts attempting to understand the strategic aims behind China's aggressive military expansion have generally focused on Taiwan. But a new naval base points at Beijing's significant and growing interest in projecting power into waters far from the Taiwan Strait. China, in fact, is equipping itself to assert its longstanding and expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea, and this plan could raise tensions well beyond the region.

What Is Happening In China?
by Arthur Waldron, Ph.D

Published on March 25th, 2008
Posed at this time, the question is enormous. Washington is singularly ill-prepared to address it, for what is happening, bluntly speaking, is that the interlocking set of hopes and assumptions about China that for thirty years have ruled policy, is being tested as never before and may not survive.

It Is Time for the Pentagon’s PLA Report to Grow Up
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 22nd, 2008
For the first time in many years, on March 3 the Pentagon issued its annual China Military Power report prior to the March 15 deadline called for by the 1997 Congressional authorization language. One apparent reason for the early delivery was to use the report as part of an intensified effort to convince China to relax its deeply ingrained resistance to “military transparency.”  However, the key requirement for this annual report as mandated by the Congress was that the Department of Defense report “on the future pattern of military modernization of the People's Republic of China.” The 2008 report offers some interesting new data,  even as it prompts new and old questions.  Responding fully to its Congressional mandate and serving better to convince China to reveal more about its capabilities and intents will require more. The time has come to greatly expand and upgrade the China Military Power report.

Bank Liability Under the Anti-Terrorism Act
Dispelling the “Routine Banking Services” Defense in Material Support Cases
by Stephen I. Landman

Published on February 2nd, 2008
Historically, the responsibility for punishing individuals and entities that aided terrorists has fallen to the government.  President Bush picked up where previous administrations had left off and implemented an “unprecedented international campaign to deter and dismantle the sources of terrorist financing.”  Since that time, both the executive and legislative branches have publicly directed law enforcement officials to remain pro-active in pursuing terrorists and their private supporters. As a result of this focus, government prosecutors have announced “substantial progress not only in disrupting the activities of potential terrorists and their supporters but closing off whole avenues that terrorists have used to sustain themselves in the United States.”  Despite these achievements, impediments to destroying the terrorist’s financial infrastructure still remain.  The war on terrorist finances is virtually without borders, and must be fought accordingly. The United States has devoted tremendous federal resources to shutting down the financiers of terrorist groups and has been largely successful.  Private citizens victimized by acts of terrorism believe that more can still be done. They have taken up arms against this support structure, focusing their attention on the one industry that is vital to terrorist organizations—financial institutions.

China’s Emerging 5th Generation Air-to-Air Missiles
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on February 2nd, 2008
Internet source imagery from January 4 has offered the first glimpses of what may be China’s emerging 5th generation air-to-air missiles (AAM).  One missile, called the PL-ASR or PL-10, shows a very close resemblance to the South African Denel A-Darter AAM.  A second image, discovered on a China’s Northwestern University web site in mid-December, shows another missile similar to the radar-guided South African Denel R-Darter, designed in cooperation with Israel.  Both of these missiles are likely designed for use with modern Helmet-Mounted Displays (HMD), which enable pilots to “look to kill” their targets.  But there is more: additional imagery suggests that a previously reported ramjet powered development of the Chinese Luoyang PL-12 active-radar guided AAM, called the PL-13, could give the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) an AAM that could out-range existing U.S. AAMs.