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Iran in Latin America: Threat or Axis of Annoyance?
Senior Fellow Douglas Farah's analysis of the debate over the level of threat posed by Iran's expanding diplomatic, trade and military presence in Latin America, and its stated ambition to continue to broaden these ties.
Chinese Naval Modernization: Altering the Balance of Power
Richard Fisher details China's naval modernization program and the potential impacts on U.S. interests in the Western Pacific.
Looking Forward
"Looking Forward" is an informal department of our website, usually written by
our Vice President Arthur Waldron, but to which colleagues and friends contribute as well, that seeks to tag, comment on or speculate about important developments before they hit the front pages, or to provide new points of view on existing issues. We call it "informal" because it is speculative, whereas for most of our work, the number one requirement is to find the facts and let the political chips fall where they may.
Thus we may look at rumors about proliferation or at new weapons, unconventional threats to our national security, environmental issues, energy, diseases, or give our thoughts about a well known issue. Our researchers travel, and often the column will reflect that. Thus Professor Waldron is spending a lot of time in Europe this semester, reading the European press (including the European Chinese-language press) and talking to European scholars and experts, and can be expected to send periodic sketches of what he has found.
Professor Waldron learned the rigorous techniques of simulation and gaming during his seven years at the Naval War College, but the tendency to try to look into the future--which seems strange, for he is after all a historian--may also be in the blood. His great uncle was, for many years, the anonymous author of "The Trader" column in Barron's Magazine, celebrated in his own time as the only Wall Street pundit who had called the great crash of 1929, the market bottom and the post-war recovery. Unfortunately, speculating on world affairs is far less remunerative.
As always, we invite serious comments from our readers about this column as well as our other offerings.
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“Overheated” China? Keep the Champagne in the Fridge
Two of the most astute students of the contemporary Chinese economy are Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy of the Institute for International Economics. Amidst optimistic assessments that China’s economy will gradually settle into a pattern of sustainable growth—or make a “soft landing” as it is usually put—their advice in the Financial Times is to hold the Champagne. What follows is stimulated by their excellent article, though I must make clear that most of the analysis is mine, not theirs, and they may well disagree with some or even all of it. In any case . . .
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Multipolarity: Be Careful What You Wish For
The report of the Japan Council on Security and Defense has hit the media today. According to the Financial Times the official panel of “wise men” recommended that “Japan should respond to the changing threats to its security by reshaping its defence capabilities and possibly acquiring the technology for pre-emptive strikes against foreign missile bases.” It also called for redefining “its security alliance with the US.”
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What really lies ahead for Europe?
The “Europe” that periodically surfaces in the presidential campaign is really a foil, a creation of the American imagination—whether its governments are seen as ingrates, as in much of the Bush camp, or sophisticates, as with Kerry.
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| Total Records: 33 |
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