Articles

It Is Time for the Pentagon’s PLA Report to Grow Up
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on March 22nd, 2008
For the first time in many years, on March 3 the Pentagon issued its annual China Military Power report prior to the March 15 deadline called for by the 1997 Congressional authorization language. One apparent reason for the early delivery was to use the report as part of an intensified effort to convince China to relax its deeply ingrained resistance to “military transparency.”  However, the key requirement for this annual report as mandated by the Congress was that the Department of Defense report “on the future pattern of military modernization of the People's Republic of China.” The 2008 report offers some interesting new data,  even as it prompts new and old questions.  Responding fully to its Congressional mandate and serving better to convince China to reveal more about its capabilities and intents will require more. The time has come to greatly expand and upgrade the China Military Power report.

Bank Liability Under the Anti-Terrorism Act
Dispelling the “Routine Banking Services” Defense in Material Support Cases
by Stephen I. Landman

Published on February 2nd, 2008
Historically, the responsibility for punishing individuals and entities that aided terrorists has fallen to the government.  President Bush picked up where previous administrations had left off and implemented an “unprecedented international campaign to deter and dismantle the sources of terrorist financing.”  Since that time, both the executive and legislative branches have publicly directed law enforcement officials to remain pro-active in pursuing terrorists and their private supporters. As a result of this focus, government prosecutors have announced “substantial progress not only in disrupting the activities of potential terrorists and their supporters but closing off whole avenues that terrorists have used to sustain themselves in the United States.”  Despite these achievements, impediments to destroying the terrorist’s financial infrastructure still remain.  The war on terrorist finances is virtually without borders, and must be fought accordingly. The United States has devoted tremendous federal resources to shutting down the financiers of terrorist groups and has been largely successful.  Private citizens victimized by acts of terrorism believe that more can still be done. They have taken up arms against this support structure, focusing their attention on the one industry that is vital to terrorist organizations—financial institutions.

China’s Emerging 5th Generation Air-to-Air Missiles
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on February 2nd, 2008
Internet source imagery from January 4 has offered the first glimpses of what may be China’s emerging 5th generation air-to-air missiles (AAM).  One missile, called the PL-ASR or PL-10, shows a very close resemblance to the South African Denel A-Darter AAM.  A second image, discovered on a China’s Northwestern University web site in mid-December, shows another missile similar to the radar-guided South African Denel R-Darter, designed in cooperation with Israel.  Both of these missiles are likely designed for use with modern Helmet-Mounted Displays (HMD), which enable pilots to “look to kill” their targets.  But there is more: additional imagery suggests that a previously reported ramjet powered development of the Chinese Luoyang PL-12 active-radar guided AAM, called the PL-13, could give the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) an AAM that could out-range existing U.S. AAMs.

A New Era in Sino-Indian Relations or Deja-vu All Over Again?
by June Teufel Dreyer, Ph.D

Published on January 19th, 2008
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s mid-January visit to Beijing produced the standard cant of high level diplomatic exchanges, dutifully repeated by the media and several Western analysts.  Singh, who received a red carpet welcome at the Beijing airport, said that bilateral ties were now poised to enter a “vibrant and dynamic phase,” and that India attached high priority to strengthening its relations with China, which was a focal point in its Look East policy. Disputes, said Singh, could be solved in the Asian way of avoiding confrontation while building trust, confidence, and consensus. China and India, echoed India’s minister of trade and industry, were now seen as the engines of economic growth by the rest of the world.  Particularly since the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States and other factors engendered fear of an economic recession in the west, investors’ hopes had turned to Asia.

Islam in American Courts: 2007 Year in Review
by Jeffrey Breinholt

Published on January 7th, 2008
The history of Islam in the U.S. courts is not a long one, which is a good thing. It means this aspect of legal history is easily digestible. Most of it comes from the last 25 years. We now have another year under our belts. Which cases from 2007 will future historians and strategists use to glean trends relevant to American national security? As I predicted several months ago, 2007 ended with highest number of American court opinions involving Islam of any in U.S. history. They totaled 888 cases (792 federal opinions and 94 state opinions).

. . .And Races Into Space
The Wall Street Journal Asia
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 3rd, 2008
China's military has long harbored ambitions of dominating space, as last year's satellite-targeting exercise showed. Now comes news that Chinese engineers may be much further along than previously thought in achieving one of their major goals: building a military space plane.

Shenlong Space Plane Advances China’s Military Space Potential
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on December 17th, 2007
A chance December 11, 2007 release of a photo on a Chinese website has led to a rare unofficial “declassification” of a new Chinese unmanned test space plane.   Designated the “Shenlong,” or Divine Dragon, this small aircraft was shown suspended from the fuselage of a Xian H-6 bomber and launch aircraft.  So far there has been no official Chinese government, PLA or Chinese corporate or space program related disclosure about this program.  However, from this photo and other Chinese sources, it is possible to conclude that the Shenlong constitutes a second Chinese air-launched space-launch vehicle (SLV) program, but for the purposes of testing technologies for a future re-usable unmanned or manned space shuttle or other trans-atmospheric vehicle.  While both unmanned and manned space planes could serve a range of scientific and commercial missions, it is also clear that the PLA envisions such vehicles to perform military missions.

Japanese Military Technology Advances
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on December 6th, 2007
While Japan has remained largely dependent on imported American technology for major weapon systems since the 1950s, through the work of the Japanese Defense Ministry’s Technical Research and Development Institute (TRDI) has also succeeded in building a modern domestic defense industry dedicated to meeting Japan’s specific requirements.  Recent TRDI successes include the new Kawasaki-built P-X four-turbofan engine maritime patrol aircraft with a TRDI designed high-bypass turbofan engine, and the new 30-ton capacity C-X twin-turbofan military transport.  While the TRDI-designed  “indigenous” Mitsubishi F-2 fighter has been marred by controversy, issues of U.S. intervention and a reduced purchase order, it did demonstrate TRDI’s capacity to design a 4th generation fighter and develop new technologies like advanced composite structures and active phased array radar.

Courtroom Jihad and the Defense of “I am a Muslim”
by Jeffrey Breinholt

Published on October 29th, 2007
When you look into Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman’s eyes, you see nothing. It’s not because of the darkness in his soul, though some may claim that’s the case. Rather, it’s because he’s blind. This physical infirmity led American lawyers to claim that he was incapable of conspiring to wage war on the United States, by orchestrating an audacious plot to simultaneously destroy several New York City landmarks in the 1990s. His lawyers chose to ignore conspiracy law, which permits prosecutors to reach anyone who is party to the illegal agreement. Sheik Rahman was right in the middle of it. If he and his cohorts had succeeded, it is likely that the death count would have exceeded 9/11. They were caught before the killing started, through the help of an undercover informant. Rahman and nine other defendants were convicted.

Chengdu J-10 Fighters for Iran
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 28th, 2007
According to an October 23 report by Russia’s Kommersant, “Iran has signed a contract with China for the delivery of two squadrons of J-10 fighter planes…Representatives of the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company said China would deliver the total (24 jets) in 2008-2010. Engines for the jets will be supplied by Russia…estimating one fighter at $40 million, put the contract’s value at $1 billion.”  While further confirmation or denials can be expected from other Russian, Iranian and Chinese sources, such a sale remains possible given Iran’s requirements and its relationship with China.  But at a time when U.S. and Israeli officials are increasingly considering the heavy burden of having to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons related facilities, China’s sale of the J-10 to Iran may signal the beginning of a deeper Chinese effort to protect Iran’s nuclear aspirations, much as it has ensured North Korea’s nuclear weapons development.